Veteran Republican strategist Karl Rove busted out a white board to explain why a “blue wave” may not materialize in November’s midterm elections.
During a Fox News segment on Thursday, host Bill Hemmer and Rove combed over the results of a new Marquette Law School poll, which indicated that Democrats may have lost a key edge.
In the survey, released on Wednesday, 49 percent of likely voters said they would vote for a Democratic congressional candidate, while 48 percent said the same for a Republican candidate. Back in April, that split was 53 percent versus 43 percent, respectively. The poll attributed the shift to rising Republican enthusiasm: 59 percent now say they are certain to vote, up from 56 percent in April. Among Democrats, that figure has dropped to 58 percent from 67 percent.
“Karl, look at this. This is a dead even race about the likelihood of voting, and that was not the case in April,” Hemmer said. “You know, Democrats at 67, Republicans at 56…11-point spread there. What is changing out there as you see it?”
“Look, I’m not certain how much change there really is,” Rove, who served as a senior adviser to George W. Bush, responded. He then pulled out a white board marked up with the key findings from the poll.
“If you look at just the top line numbers among all the respondents in the survey, in May it was 56 D, 45 R; the Ds had a one-point advantage,” he said, pointing to the board. “in April it was 48-44, a four-point advantage. So the Democrats in the Marquette survey have dropped two, and the Republicans have added one, which is inside the margin of error.”
The survey, he said, indicates there hasn’t been much change, but if there has been any, it advantages Republicans.
Rove then took a step back to look at the bigger picture, noting that recent mid-decade redistricting has “mildly advantaged” Republicans. The question, he said, is: “How big a gap do the Democrats need in order to pull off a significant sweep in the House of Representatives?”
“Having a Democrat advantage of one ain’t much,” he continued. “A Democrat advantage of four is significantly better. But I’m thinking that they need to have at least five or six minimum lead in the advantage on the ballot if they’re going to take the House with a significant margin.”
“And remember, this is a contest between two unfavorables,” he concluded. “The president’s unfavorability is at 40 percent. The Democratic Party’s unfavorability is below 37. So…who’s less popular and how’s that going to affect the outcome?”
Currently, the Republicans hold razor-thin majorities in both the House and Senate. And, if this year’s midterm elections follow past trends, the president’s party will lose seats, potentially handing control of one or both chambers into the hands of Democrats.
Some Republican lawmakers and strategists, including Rove, have warned that the ongoing war with Iran, high gas prices and the president’s low approval ratings could undermine the party’s chances of holding its majorities.
For his part, Trump has repeatedly dismissed Rove’s warnings, claiming he’s “been wrong about almost everything.”
“FoxNews should get rid of sloppy RINO Karl Rove,” the 79-year-old president wrote on Truth Social Thursday. “He’s called ME and MAGA wrong for 11 years now, and he still doesn’t get it, and he never will, because he suffers from a completely inoperable, and totally dysfunctional, case of Trump Derangement Syndrome. Put Karl Rove out to pasture, NOW. He is a LOSER, and he always will be!”
