Trump ‘in serious trouble’ in his own heartland as Republicans brace for midterm wipeout
Democrats are gaining ground across a string of Senate contests that could determine control of Congress this November – and even traditionally Republican states are suddenly looking competitive.
New polling by RealClearPolitics shows GOP candidates trailing Democrats in eight major Senate battlegrounds, raising the prospect of a brutal election night for President Donald Trump’s party.
Republicans were already bracing for a difficult fight to hold onto the House, where the party faces the historical disadvantage that typically comes with occupying the White House during a president’s first midterm.
So far, Trump’s influence over the Republican Party remains formidable, with 261 of his 270 endorsed candidates winning their primaries so far – a 96.7 percent success rate, according to Ballotpedia.
Recent victories include Darline Graham in South Carolina and Mike Mazzei in Oklahoma, adding to Trump’s impressive record heading into the November midterms.
But there’s also been a series of bruising problems this primary season, with a growing list of his hand-picked candidates crashing out despite receiving his coveted endorsement.
Among those defeated are embattled Florida Congressman Cory Mills, former Commerce Department adviser Catalina Lauf and Wyoming gubernatorial hopeful Megan Degenfelder, who all lost on the same night in August.
So far, Trump’s influence over the Republican Party remains formidable, with 261 of his 270 endorsed candidates winning their primaries so far
Darline Graham, the sister of the late senator Lindsey Graham, who was endorsed by President Trump and won her brother’s seat in South Carolina
Republican candidates are behind in states including Texas and Ohio, while wider Democratic leads in Georgia and North Carolina have raised concerns within the party
But holding onto the Senate is now emerging as an even bigger headache.
Republican candidates are behind in states including Texas and Ohio, while wider Democratic leads in Georgia and North Carolina have raised concerns within the party.
The latest RCP figures have Republicans trailing by 8 points in North Carolina, 7.5 points in Georgia, 2.6 points in Ohio, 2.3 points in Maine, 2 points in Alaska, 2 points in New Hampshire, 1.9 points in Texas and 1.8 points in Michigan.
Patrick Ruffini analyzed 3,312 Senate polls from the past four election cycles and found a striking pattern: 73 percent overstated the eventual Democratic margin, by an average of 3.7 points. The historical overstatement was even larger in late July, when it peaked at 5.9 points.
A glimmer of hope for Republicans comes from Iowa, where GOP Representative Ashley Hinson is narrowly ahead of Democrat Josh Turek by 1.4 points.
Democrats currently occupy three of the battleground seats being contested, while Republicans hold six. And aside from Georgia and North Carolina, the margins fall within what would generally be regarded as the margin of error.
Republicans insist the public polling could be understating their support.
‘National Republicans have been sounding the alarm that midterms are hard since last year, and we’ve been firm that not a single race should be taken for granted,’ a GOP operative involved in Senate races told the New York Post.
But there is a major difference between this election and Trump’s previous campaigns: the president himself won’t be on the ballot.
That could make it considerably harder for Republicans to bring the MAGA base to the polls, while Democrats are showing signs of strong enthusiasm.
Politico columnist Jonathan Martin, who has been traveling through the country ahead of the election, has identified the Midwest as a particularly worrying region for Republicans.
Farmers who once formed an important part of Trump’s coalition are increasingly frustrated by economic pressures.
‘He’s in serious trouble in farm country,’ Republican Senator Kevin Cramer of North Dakota told Martin.
‘He being Trump — and Trump is us. I’m not very optimistic.’
In Ohio and Iowa, Trump’s trade policies, the war with Iran and its effect on diesel and fertilizer prices, along with his decision to import foreign beef in an attempt to reduce grocery prices, have all become potential political liabilities.
And the unease is spreading beyond the Midwest.
The rising cost of living, Trump’s difficulty winning over centrists and stronger Democratic voter engagement could put Republican prospects at risk in Maine, Texas, North Carolina and Alaska.
