US midterms 2026: Lame-duck Trump swamped by a blue wave: What happens next?
The blue wave is here: the Democrats have won both the House of Representatives and the Senate. It’s been a resounding defeat for the Republican Party, and the focus will now turn to just how President Donald Trump gets through the remaining two years of his second term.
So what happens next?
The president has a reputation for being a sore loser, but he was relatively gracious as the results poured in, dampening fears that he would claim fraud, clog the courts with appeals or worse.
Early on, he posted a picture of a red MAGA-style cap with the word “VETO” on it, and added: “I wasn’t on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP”.
But later, Trump said he was surprised by the extent of the Republican losses and even praised the Democrats’ campaigns. “I thought they’d do better, actually … The Democrats did a good job. They fought hard. They’ve been fighting for a long time.”
Trump will now follow the lame-duck president tradition of spending more time on foreign affairs, predicts Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research.
Gertken suggests he could escalate attacks on Iran in another effort to force it into a deal (which would bring down oil prices) and, at home, double down on his support for AI and data centres to drive the twin themes of peace and prosperity many Republicans are pinning their hopes on ahead of the 2028 presidential election.
But the new Democrat-controlled Congress could instead turn the tables on Trump over Iran, says Professor Brendan O’Connor, of the University of Sydney’s school of social and political sciences.
Under the War Powers Resolution, the president is required to withdraw American forces after 60 days unless Congress has declared war or specifically authorised the military action (or extended the 60-day period by law, or is unable to meet as a result of an armed attack on the US).
O’Connor says before the midterms, the Republicans “basically ignored that law and had the votes to ignore it. But now they have a majority, the Democrats could force a vote which would end legal military operations in Iraq”. Whether Trump could veto this resolution remains to be seen. (Remember that VETO cap?)
On another front, O’Connor says the blue wave might prompt Trump to pivot away from Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
“I think Republicans in Congress have been uncomfortable with his support of Putin [buying Russian diesel and relaxing sanctions on Russia] and his anti-Ukrainian position, so there could be a lot of pressure on him to give more funding to Ukraine.”
Meanwhile, House inquiries could delve into all aspects of Trump’s relationships with Elon Musk (who donated about half a billion dollars to the Republicans these midterms), the cryptocurrency market, the UAE and Israeli Prime Minister leader Benjamin Netanyahu, says O’Connor.
He predicts tech leaders such as Musk, OpenAI’s Sam Altman and Nvidia’s Jensen Huang could be hauled before Senate committees, while investigations may also tie up Trump’s allies, forcing the president to rely on less loyal staff.
The blue wave will allow the Democrats to take control of the key congressional committees, investigate Trump’s business associates and family, and even move to impeach Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, says Michael Feller, chief strategist at Geopolitical Strategy.
Feller says the Democrats’ win has broken the spell Trump held over Republicans, reducing the MAGA movement from “a force to a curiosity”.
Trump will continue to pursue his interests via executive order and has flagged he will cut deals in Congress where he can. “I guess I’ll become ‘Mr Veto’, and then at a certain point we’ll probably make some deals,” he told the New York Post this week.
However, control of both houses won’t mean clear sailing for the Democrats. Economic conditions are fragile because of the inflation crisis, rising unemployment, spiralling national debt ($US40 trillion) and concerns that the AI frenzy will implode.
And now the presidential election cycle begins. At this stage, the Republican favourites are Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The Democrats field is wide open, and people will be measuring how well they manage Congress until 2028.
Says O’Connor: “The Democrats have a bit of a record, making some pretty appalling decisions – and are a party with their own problems and hubris. So it’s not guaranteed that they’re going to look good after two years.”
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Madeleine Heffernan is an Explainer reporter for The Age and Sydney Morning Herald. She has also reported on education, city, business and consumer affairs for the publications.Connect via X or email.