“We will continue to monitor rising political pressure on the Fed but expect its decision-making to remain guided by its mandate in the near term,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, chief investment officer for the Americas and global head of equities at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Wall Street is still betting that the Fed will trim its benchmark interest rate at its next meeting in September. Traders see an 87 per cent chance that the central bank will cut the rate by a quarter of a percentage point, according to data from CME Group.
The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks expectations for Fed action, slipped to to 3.68 per cent from 3.73 per cent late Friday.
The Federal Reserve spent much of the last several years fighting rising inflation by raising interest rates. It managed to mostly tame inflation and avoided having those higher rates stall economic growth, thanks largely to strong consumer spending and a resilient job market.
The Fed started shifting its policy by cutting its benchmark interest rate late in 2024 as the rate of inflation neared its target of 2 per cent. It decided to hit the pause button heading into 2025 over concerns that Trump’s unpredictable tariff policy could reignite inflation. Lower interest rates make borrowing easier, helping to spur more investment and spending, but that could also potentially fuel inflation.
The Fed and Wall Street will get another update on inflation Friday, when the US releases the personal consumption expenditures index. Economists expect it show that inflation remained at about 2.6 per cent in July, compared with a year ago. Businesses have been warning investors and consumers about higher costs and prices because of tariffs.
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The Fed has recently become more worried about the state of the employment market, which has shown signs of weakening. Aside from keeping inflation in check, the central bank is tasked with using its tools to help maintain a healthy job market. It will get another big update on the employment market in early September, ahead of its next policy meeting.
Consumer confidence declined modestly in August as anxiety over a weakening job market grew for the eighth straight month. The small decline from the Conference Board’s monthly survey was mostly in line with economists’ projections.
Crude oil prices fell. European and Asian markets closed lower.
