Security analysts say Islamic State claim is plausible
The one element that was unusual was that the perpetrators had made their escape, he said – unlike typical Islamist militant attacks where the perpetrators go in prepared to die and expecting to be shot in the end by security forces.
Who are ISIS-K?
Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K), named after an old term for the region that included parts of Iran, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan, emerged in eastern Afghanistan in late 2014 and quickly established a reputation for extreme brutality.
One of the most active regional affiliates of the Islamic State militant group, ISIS-K has seen its membership decline since peaking in 2018. The Taliban and US forces inflicted heavy losses.
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The US sees the group as an ongoing threat. General Michael Kurilla, the commander of US Central Command, told Congress last March that ISIS-K was quickly developing the ability to conduct “external operations” in Europe and Asia. He predicted it would be able to attack US and Western interests outside Afghanistan “in as little as six months and with little to no warning.”
High degree of planning
Their execution of the attack and escape showed a high degree of planning and co-ordination, given gunmen in such situations can get caught up in “tunnel vision” and end up scattered and isolated from their accomplices, Dolnik said.
“If they were co-ordinated enough to actually make an escape all together, all at once, that to me tells a story of a really well-planned attack and strong coordination between the individual attackers.”
Yassin Musharbash, a German journalist and security specialist, said the language, content and channels of communication used for the claim of responsibility showed that the claim definitely came from Islamic State. In a post on X, he said that did not mean it was factually true that the group carried out the attack, but that this was plausible.
In the past, militant groups have been known to claim attacks carried out by others, if they fit with their preferred targets and propaganda goals.
People lay flowers and light candles near Crocus City Hall at the weekend.Credit: AP
‘Fixated on Russia’
IS has a strong motivation to strike Russia, which intervened against it in Syria’s civil war in 2015 on the side of President Bashar al-Assad.
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“ISIS-K has been fixated on Russia for the past two years, frequently criticising Putin in its propaganda,” said Colin Clarke of Soufan Centre, a New York-based research group. The ISIS-K branch of Islamic State sprang up in 2014 in Afghanistan.
Michael Kugelman of the Washington-based Wilson Centre said ISIS-K “sees Russia as being complicit in activities that regularly oppress Muslims”.
Reuters
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