Thought Islamic State has been eradicated? Think again
Instances of Islamic State’s willingness to attack targets in Europe are becoming increasingly common. Two weeks prior to the Moscow attack, an IS-K cell was disrupted in Moscow as they planned an attack on a synagogue. A week earlier, a two-man IS-K cell was arrested in Germany with plans to attack the Swedish parliament building in retribution for the burning of a Koran during protests in that country. And in January, two IS-K operatives attacked a Catholic church in Istanbul, killing one man. None of the attacks have been overly complex; in Iran it involved the use of explosive devices but elsewhere small arms were the weapon of choice.
Loading
But in the modern era, where social media amplifies actions beyond their immediate impact, sometimes volume has its own attraction, so the number of attacks can be as important as the quality.
That being said, the significant death toll from the Moscow attack is testimony to just how much damage well-armed attackers can do in places of mass gathering that lack adequate security.
The withdrawal from Afghanistan notwithstanding, media reports that the US provided intelligence to both Iran and Russia about potential IS-K attacks in their countries before the attacks occurred would indicate that Washington has retained the ability to monitor some of Islamic State’s intentions even if it has a limited ability to respond to them at source.
The IS threat now is qualitatively different to the one posed by it during its height. Its loss of territory has meant that the allure of travelling to the caliphate is no longer something that attracts foreign nationals.
But it has demonstrated that it retains the intent, and the capability, to conduct external operations against the types of targets that it has focused on in the past: In Iran and Russia, places of mass gathering; in Istanbul, a church; in Moscow, a synagogue.
The head of ASIO Mike Burgess advised that Sunni violent extremism represents the greatest religious extremist threat in Australia in a speech earlier this year. And while our role in the anti-IS coalition and place in the Western alliance generally makes us a target, and expatriates or travellers may get caught in the wrong place at the wrong time, Islamic State’s external attack planners find countries such as the United States and Australia much more challenging to plan attacks against than regional or European countries.
But the recent attacks should be a reminder to the public at large that while the threat from Islamic State has been greatly reduced, it nevertheless remains.
Dr Rodger Shanahan has appeared as an expert witness in Australian terrorism cases and is the author of Islamic State in Australia. As an army officer, his operational experience included Lebanon, Syria and Afghanistan.
