How Iran could fight a shadow war with US for months after Operation Epic Fury failed to destroy missiles
Iran has enough missile capability to continue fighting should Donald Trump choose to resume the war, US and Nato intelligence has assessed – and experts say it has several more cards up its sleeve.
The US president has repeatedly claimed that American forces have comprehensively destroyed Iran’s military, including its missile capabilities and navy, during six weeks of conflict before a ceasefire was agreed.
Intelligence agencies have warned that Iran still has access to most of its missiles and underground facilities, sources told The Independent, casting doubt over President Trump’s dubious claims that Iran has been “decimated” by the war.
Experts say Iran retains numerous options for escalation.
“Tehran’s strength lies in its asymmetric capabilities: ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, drones, naval mines, cyber operations, and proxy groups,” said Frank A Rose, the former assistant secretary of state for arms control under the Obama administration.
Negotiations between Washington and Tehran are flagging.
With no guarantee of a long-term peace deal, and as concerns grow that a full-scale war could resume, The Independent takes a look at the state of Iran’s military and how it could wage an asymmetric war with the US.
Nato intelligence believes that Iranians has maintained at least 60 per cent of their missile capability, The Independent was told.
US intelligence believes 90 per cent of Iran’s storage and launch facilities buried underground are now “partially or fully operational”, with access to 30 out of its 33 missile sites stationed along the Strait of Hormuz, according to the New York Times.
Mr Rose said that Iran “likely retains significant inventories of ballistic and cruise missiles”.
Tehran, as a result, retains enough of its military capabilities to “create serious disruption in the region”, he added.
Two weeks before a ceasefire came into place, geopolitical analyst Dmitri Alperovitch said it was “probably safe to assume that [Iran] can continue it at least for weeks, maybe longer, at this rate of fire”.
The country also retains the capacity to produce large numbers of its low-cost, one-way kamikaze drones, which were critical in its retaliatory strikes on neighbouring countries around the Middle East.
But while Iran can create instability, it has lost its ability to achieve “strategic surprise or coercive dominance”, Mr Rose said, adding that missile defences in the Gulf have proven “increasingly effective at blunting large-scale missile and drone attacks”.
