Bombshell Newspoll data shows One Nation charging ahead of Labor in Queensland and going strong in NSW

One Nation leader Pauline Hanson is now the preferred prime minister in her home state of Queensland, and the latest poll data indicates her right-wing party also remains a major threat in the other states, with the exception of Victoria.

A quarterly analysis of Newspoll data for The Australian on Sunday night found Hanson’s party was the top choice for 36 per cent of Queensland voters.

Labor was Queenslanders’ second-best choice at 25 per cent, followed by the Coalition at 19 per cent.

When asked if they would prefer Hanson or Labor leader Anthony Albanese as prime minister, 52 per cent of Queenslanders chose Hanson.

One Nation’s primary vote was also stronger than the two major parties’ in NSW at 31 per cent, beating Labor’s 30 per cent and the Coalition’s 17 per cent.

Hanson’s party also had the highest primary support Australia-wide at 30 per cent, followed by Labor at 29 per cent and the Coalition at 19 per cent.

The Greens took 13 per cent of the primary vote while 9 per cent of voters backed other minor parties and independents.

One Nation recorded an incredible jump in support this quarter, from July 13 to September 18, compared to the same period last year.

Its support in Queensland was up 26 per cent to 36 per cent, up 21 per cent in NSW to 31 per cent, 20 per cent in South Australia to 31 per cent, 18 per cent in WA to 29 per cent, and 18 per cent in Victoria to 25 per cent. 

Labor’s primary vote in Queensland dropped 30 per cent in that same timeframe to 25 per cent. 

Between Hanson and Albanese, Queensland was the only state to prefer Hanson as prime minister.

Albanese won the Australia-wide vote 56 per cent to Hanson’s 44 per cent.

When the question was opened to include Coalition leader Angus Taylor, 46 per cent of Australian voters backed Albanese, followed by 31 per cent for Hanson and 23 per cent for Taylor.

Hanson was most unpopular in Victoria where only 39 per cent chose her as prime minister over Albanese.

Between Taylor and Albanese in Queensland if Hanson were excluded, Taylor beat Albanese as preferred prime minister with 44 per cent of voters preferring him compared to 35 per cent backing Albanese. 

Albanese’s net approval rating was down 21 per cent compared to last year at -22, with 59 per cent of voters dissatisfied with his performance, 37 per cent satisfied and 4 per cent uncommitted.

A senior Coalition source said One Nation poses a threat to several traditionally safe seats in Victoria and NSW, set to go to election in November and March respectively.

Performance in those elections will be key ahead of the Queensland state election in October 2028, where One Nation has seen the biggest rise in support. 

‘Everyone will be watching the Victorian and NSW state elections to see how the Nationals go,’ the source said. 

‘There is serious worry that the NSW Nationals will be wiped off the map in March.

‘Defending those traditionally safe federal seats in Queensland will be tough for Matt Canavan. If the One Nation vote holds up, they could lose the lot.’

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