Breeders’ Cup tips: Best bets and odds for Saturday at Keeneland

Saturday Breeders’ Cup tips

Bacio (Keeneland, 17.48) – 2pts win @ 11/8 Bet365

Blue Bolt (Keeneland, 19.04) – 2pts win @ 15/8 William Hill

Deterministic (Keeneland, 20.20) – 1pt each-way @ 8/1 BetMGM

Benvenuto Cellini (Keeneland, 21.36) – 1pt win @ 5/1 QuinnBet

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Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) (17.48, Keeneland)

A top drawer sprint in prospect and we have the excitement of seeing BACIO in action once again.

Trainer Wesley Ward’s raids to these shores are very often significant and that again proved to be the case in 2026, as he saddled the Maclean’s Music colt to a decisive success in the Palace of Holyroodhouse Handicap at Royal Ascot (5f, good to firm) before heading home and leaving his charge to make all in the Group 1 Nunthorpe at York’s Ebor Festival (5f, good to soft).

This time, Bacio can more or less step out of his Kentucky yard and on to the track for this race and the noises being made by his trainer in the build-up to the race have been very positive, with a recent change of shoes apparently adding another ‘X factor’ to his speed.

Beaten only once, and narrowly, on debut, Bacio is the best of this field on official ratings and I don’t think the extra half furlong here is a concern. I’d expect him to bounce out and take this by the scruff of the neck.

If he doesn’t run to his best, then Comanche Brave should be the chief beneficiary. Donnacha O’Brien’s colt has plenty more experience and arrives after back-to-back Group 1 wins in the July Cup and, more recently, a career-best in the Flying Five at the Curragh. We know he gets further and won’t be stopping, so he has plenty of bases covered.

Tip: Bacio (Keeneland, 17.48) – 2pts win @ 11/8 Bet365

Makers Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1) (19.04, Keeneland)

Britain could be on the board with a win here for the brilliant BLUE BOLT, who has been superbly handled and placed by Andrew Balding.

Unbeaten in six starts this calendar year, she’s won all of those over 1m and on a sound surface, winning four successive Group 1 races including the Falmouth, the Matron and the Sun Chariot.

She’s a high class act and has proved she’s better than one of her opponents, Precise, on more than one occasion already.

Balding had suggested that she might “take on the boys” after her Newmarket Sun Chariot success but he’s decided to keep her to her own sex here and that can pay dividends.

She may stay in training at five and then head for open company but for this race, I think she can arguably improve again for the step up to 1m1½f as her dam, Mayhem, was a classy middle distance performer and so there should be stamina within.

Home-trained Kathynmarissa may actually present a bigger threat than the Ballydoyle inmate Precise on the day but Blue Bolt is taken to complete a magnificent 2026 with further success.

Tip: Blue Bolt (Keeneland, 19.04) – 2pts win @ 15/8 William Hill

FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile (Grade 1) (20.20, Keeneland)

If betting sites are to be believed, this is a done deal for Notable Speech and this outstanding Godolphin miler may well add further international Group 1 success to his CV.

The Charlie Appleby-trained five-year-old was beaten here on his seasonal reappearance in April and the only other time he’s had his colours lowered this year was typically when I tipped him to win Royal Ascot’s Queen Anne Stakes.

He bounced back to win the City Of York Stakes in fine style and then ‘prepped’ for this by beating DETERMINISTIC over a length in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile (1m, firm) last month.

He’s well worthy of market leadership but I think the value here must lay with the one he beat last time. He’s been put in at 8/1 and with three places to play for, he looks good each-way value at that price.

If, for any reason, Notable Speech does not hit his straps then I think the Miguel Clement-trained five-year-old, himself a winner of four elite level events at up to 1m1½f. could nick it. At the very least, he looks to have a great chance of making the frame.

Tip: Deterministic (Keeneland, 20.20) – 1pt each-way @ 8/1 BetMGM

Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (Grade 1) (21.36, Keeneland)

While he doesn’t always get it right, when Ryan Moore makes a call on a horse he is not often wrong and that, plus the words of trainer Aidan O’Brien with regard to BENVENUTO CELLINI, make him the selection to win the turf against his better fancied stablemate Diamond Necklace.

Christophe Soumillon will ride the latter, who has had a very impressive campaign and finished six places ahead of the selection in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe earlier in the month.

The filly finished just 1½L behind Daryz that day on what was her first try over 1m4f. She remains unexposed at the trip although her performance was several pounds below her Group 1 Nassau Stakes success at Goodwood (when Moore was on board), according to the number crunchers.

Either way, she’s well worth her place here but Ryan Moore will know how to ride Benvenuto Cellini and get the best out of him, while he also has prime knowledge of how he thinks he can beat his stablemate.

The Irish Derby winner is proven over the trip and, while he’s not been as good as that Curragh success on his last two starts, O’Brien has gone on the record as saying they’ve always thought this was the race for him.

Bay City Roller, Test Score, Tiffany and Ethical Diamond help to make this a very deep race but I’m trusting the judgement of two of the greats in their respective fields.

Tip: Benvenuto Cellini (Keeneland, 21.36) – 1pt win @ 5/1 QuinnBet

Responsible gambling

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