How a vague clause in Trump’s peace deal led to anarchy in the Strait of Hormuz
The future of the global economy once again rests on an 100-mile strip of water sandwiched between the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman.
Shipping through the vital waterway has halved following tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran this week, shaking the foundations of a sketchy 14-point interim peace deal between the warring nations.
It started when Iran attacked three commercial vessels passing through the Omani corridor of the Strait of Hormuz in overnight attacks on Monday.
The US revoked sanctions relief on Iranian oil sales almost immediately and US Central Command launched a wave of strikes on over 80 military targets in response, accusing Tehran of violating the ceasefire agreement. Iran retaliated by hitting military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.
Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf accused the US of violating the MoU, writing on X: “The era of bullying and extortion is over. It leads nowhere. We don’t fold.”
Each side blames the other for violating the ceasefire – and it all comes down to a single shipping lane.
The Strait of Hormuz is made up of two shipping corridors. One is a southern passage that runs along the Omani coast, which was traditionally used for inbound ships.
The second lane, generally for outbound vessels, runs along the Iranian coast. Throughout the conflict the corridors have been used for both inbound and outbound commercial traffic.
In the days leading up to Iran’s attacks this week, tensions had been mounting as commercial traffic appeared to increase through the route along the Omani coast.
Iran said that any ships not using its approved route would face an “immediate and powerful response” and the IRGC has used various techniques including small boats to “swarm” commercial vessels.
“What we are witnessing is Iran wishing to retain control over Hormuz. It is clear that the Iranian regime calculates that vessels passing through the Omani passage without coordinating with the Iranian authorities constitutes a challenge to its ability to exercise control over Hormuz,” says Neil Quilliam, an energy policy, geopolitics and foreign affairs specialist, at Chatham House.
Iran has used its leverage over the strait to push the US for concessions and has floated the idea of a joint tolling system with Oman, which President Donald Trump has vehemently rejected.
“This is a test of wills between Iran and the US,” says Mr Quilliam. “The US has lifted its blockade of Iranian ports and shipping and Iran has allowed vessels to pass through the strait but is unwilling to cede its control over Hormuz as that would mean surrendering a main point of leverage.”
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps released a statement on Thursday saying that “foreign powers have no claim to this land or to the Strait of Hormuz”.
