Liver disease breakthrough: NHS data could spot patients at risk YEARS before symptoms – as cases surge among non‑drinkers

Scientists say NHS data could be used to spot people at risk of liver disease years earlier – before symptoms even begin. 

The condition, one of the fastest-growing causes of death in the UK, often develops silently, leaving many unaware until serious and sometimes irreversible damage has already occurred.

Now, researchers say analysing existing blood test records could help spot warning signs much sooner. 

Liver disease rates have soared in recent decades, with deaths increasing more than fourfold since the 1970s – even as outcomes for many other major illnesses have improved.

While it is often linked to alcohol, experts warn growing numbers of cases are being driven by obesity, diabetes and poor diet – meaning millions of non-drinkers could also be at risk.

One of the biggest challenges is that symptoms can take years to appear. By the time the condition is diagnosed, patients may already have significant scarring of the liver, known as cirrhosis, or even liver failure or cancer.

The new approach, developed through the LiveWell study, uses a method known as the Cumulative Liver Damage Index (CLDI).

Unlike standard liver tests, which provide only a snapshot in time, the tool analyses patterns across multiple blood tests to show how damage may have built up over the years.

Researchers used existing NHS data to identify people at higher risk, who were then invited for further checks.

The study recruited 994 people from a single NHS site in under a year, with results suggesting the method was more effective at spotting clinically significant liver disease than commonly used first-line tests.

Scientists say the approach could also streamline care by allowing high-risk patients to be sent straight for non-invasive liver scans – reducing the need for repeated appointments and helping the NHS target resources more effectively.

During the trial, those flagged by the system were offered scans and additional testing, including genetic analysis.

‘This changes what early detection could look like at scale,’ said Charlotte Guzzo, chief operating officer at Sano Genetics, which supported the work.

‘The fact this can be done using data already held in NHS systems is particularly promising.’

Larry R. Holden, of the Global Liver Institute, added that earlier detection could give patients more time to act before serious damage is done.

However, experts caution that larger studies are still needed before the method can be rolled out more widely.

A follow-up trial involving 8,000 patients across multiple NHS sites is already underway, with results expected later this year.

The technology behind the approach is now being expanded across parts of the South West of England, with wider NHS rollout being explored in the coming years.

The news comes as weight-loss medications such as Mounjaro (tirzepatide) are showing promising results in the treatment of liver disease. 

Studies suggest these drugs can significantly reduce liver fat and improve inflammation, and may even help reverse early scarring in some cases.

By supporting weight loss and better blood sugar control, they could slow — or potentially reverse – disease progression, although they are not yet widely approved for this use in the UK.