Marjorie Taylor Greene’s resignation blows up Trump and Mike Johnson’s MAGA math
Marjorie Taylor Greene shocked many on Capitol Friday when she announced that she would resign her seat in the House of Representatives.
The Georgia Republican’s announcement came after years of frustration with House Speaker Mike Johnson. At one point in 2024, she tried to remove him as speaker. It also came after President Donald Trump had unendorsed her in light of her support for the discharge petition to force a vote to release files related to Jeffrey Epstein.
While Trump gloated about her departure, Greene’s decision to exit Congress on Jan. 5 will make Trump and Johnson’s math in the House much more difficult.
Here’s the breakdown right now: Republicans have 219 House seats, exactly one more than the requisite 218 to have a majority and pass anything. Last week, Democrat Mikie Sherrill resigned her seat after she won the governorship in New Jersey earlier this month, giving Democrats 213 seats.
Those numbers may sound negligible. But look at it this way: Earlier this year, the House passed the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act with exactly 218 votes as two Republicans voted against the bill. And that vote came when Democrats had three vacancies because elderly members had died.
In September, the House voted 217-212 to keep the government open and only one Democrat joined the Republicans. And that only happened because two Democrats and one Republican didn’t show up to work.
These are incredibly tight margins and it requires near unanimity among the House GOP conference. Otherwise, bills simply won’t be taken up.
These next few months will only make the math more difficult. On Dec. 2, Tennessee’s 7th district will hold a special election to fill Mark Green’s old seat after he resigned. This should be a layup for Republicans. The district voted 22 points for Trump in 2024.
But Democrats’ over-performance in numerous off-year elections and special elections have them worried. They have poured in money for Republican Matt Van Epps to keep the seat red. Last week, MAGA Inc., the pro-Trump super PAC, dropped $232,000 to support Van Epps and oppose Democrat Aftyn Behn.
If somehow Behn pulls off a miracle win, Democrats will have 214 seats to the GOP’s 219. If the GOP holds it, they will have 220. On January 5, that number will go down to 219 or 218 because of Greene’s resignation.
But on Jan. 31, Texas will hold a special election to fill the seat of the late Sylvester Turner, who died in March of this year. The seat is overwhelmingly African-American and Democratic and is almost guaranteed to go to the Democrats, giving Democrats 215 or 214 seats.
Then comes the special election in April for New Jersey’s 11th district. This seat will almost certainly go to a Democrat, ticking up their their number to 216 or 215 seats to the GOP’s 218 or 219.
All of this happens before there’s even a special election to fill Greene’s seat. And before anyone asks, no, there is no chance that Democrats can win that seat: Trump won Georgia’s 14th district by almost 37 points in 2024.
Once Gov. Brian Kemp schedules the race, if none of the candidates reach 50 percent, it will go into a runoff, further delaying Republicans’ abilities to pass legislation.
