Seven months after ceasefire with Israel, Hamas is at a crossroads. Its next leader could define Gaza’s future
The future of the Gaza Strip is hanging in the balance as Hamas prepares to elect its first political leader since the death of Yahya Sinwar, a decision which could alter the future direction of the Palestinian militant group and the wider Middle East.
Depleted but still operational after more than two years of war with Israel, Hamas has been holding a highly secretive internal ballot to decide who will run its political wing for the past several weeks. Their decision has long been delayed by Israel’s invasion and bombardment of the enclave, which has brutalised its civilian population.
There have been briefings to suggest that a new leader has now been chosen – but it is unclear if and when Hamas will formally announce the identity of their new leader.
One report in Egyptian newspaper Al Manassa states that Khalil al-Hayya, a Gaza-born close associate of Sinwar, has won the leadership after securing 65 per cent of the vote.
But Khaled Mashal, a long-serving Qatar-based member of Hamas’s politburo, who served as its leader for two decades from 1996 to 2017 – when he was succeeded by the late Ismail Haniyeh – is reported by others to have won the ballot, experts say.
The election has been presented by Western media as a choice between a more moderate Mashal and the hawkish Al-Hayya. Zaher Jabarin, the leader of Hamas in the West Bank, was also reportedly a candidate. The trio are now based in Doha, and currently share the title of acting chairman of the Hamas political bureau.
Peace talks between Hamas and Israel appear have hit a wall, despite a ceasefire agreement in October 2025. Hundreds have been killed by Israeli fire in Gaza since the ceasefire began, and its military has continued creeping forward from the agreed “yellow line”, which was intended to demarcate the boundaries of its partial control in the strip.
Mashal, born in the West Bank, is believed to be more open to working with the Palestinian Authority (PA) and holds close diplomatic ties with Turkey and Qatar. Al-Hayya serves as the de facto leader of the Gaza Strip and is one of the group’s chief negotiators.
“[Al-Hayya] also lost two sons in the war,” says Dr Yaniv Voller, an expert in internal Palestinian politics at the University of Kent. “He is also reportedly closer to Iran, which might indicate a stronger inclination to resume the armed struggle.”
Michael Milshtein, an expert on Hamas at Tel Aviv University, said it is “far more important to continue developing the issue of control in Gaza and the matter of [military] rebuilding.”
Dr Rob Geist Pinfold, an expert on the region at King’s College London, says his understanding is that Mashal, Al-Hayya, and Jabarin have been elected into senior roles, with Mashal at the helm.
If this selection is confirmed, it would suggest the elections have served only as a “rubber stamp” for the existing balance of power, with the trio taking on “different portfolios with Mashal as the leader”.
The Western tendency to view the Hamas election as a choice between hawks and moderates, he says, does not reflect the more complex reality of Hamas’ internal politics.
“Both those groups have different reasons to be moderate or extreme. So the Doha group is the diplomats; they’re the ones who have relations with world leaders, including talking with the US, so we often see them as moderates for that reason. However, they are also prone to bombastic rhetoric, they have less of a need to worry about their domestic constituency,” he says.
