Sports betting sites have already hooked young men. Prediction markets are now going after women
In a TikTok ad for prediction market platform Kalshi, a young woman appears to place a bet as her friends anxiously look over her shoulder.
“I was about to be unable to pay my rent, but I got two years of rent through Kalshi’s predictions. It’s amazing!” reads the social media ad’s text overlay, which is an exhibit in a class action lawsuit against the company.
It is one example of how companies like Kalshi and fellow prediction platform Polymarket, where people trade on the outcomes of real-world events, have set their sights not only on young people but especially on younger women.
Sports betting remains the most lucrative stream of revenue for prediction markets, their core base typically being younger men. A recent survey found that 26 percent of young men reported using at least one sports betting platform, including prediction markets, in the last six months.
But now, to appeal to a wider demographic, the sites are branching out and offering “yes” or “no” bets on everything from who will be a bridesmaid at Taylor Swift’s wedding to which stars will appear on the Call Her Daddy podcast this year.
For Kalshi, it appears to be paying off, with women now making up 26 percent of users, a doubling from 13 percent just 10 months ago, according to The Wall Street Journal.
“Prediction markets are really kind of zoning in and targeting that group through pop culture,” Brian Pempus, the founder and editor of GamblingHarm.org, told The Independent. “They need advertising behind them to really hit that demographic that they want.”
Prediction markets have been surging in popularity in the U.S. since the 2024 election, when trading on the markets showed Donald Trump edging out Kamala Harris, even when most polling did not.
“They’ve really taken off since Donald Trump took office for a second term, because he basically allowed the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to turn a blind eye to sports betting through these prediction markets,” Pempus said.
But the tide appears to be turning as lawmakers have started to clamp down on the sites. Just this week, a group of bipartisan senators introduced legislation that would ban sports betting on prediction market sites. The sites also raised raised eyebrows when people made bets on the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Still, despite fierce backlash and years of court battles, the companies are now estimated to be worth $20 billion each. Donald Trump. Jr is an adviser to both industry leaders, Polymarket and Kalshi. And the president’s Truth Social is set to launch its own prediction market later this year.
At the end of last year, online communities that appeared to be tied to Kalshi and Polymarket launched on X in an apparent effort to attract younger women to the wagering sites.
The @Polybaddies account launched on X in September and has a yellow verification badge that signals its official ties to the parent company, while Kalshi followed suit a month later with @Kalshigirls, though the account does not have a verified badge. It is run by an influencer whom Kalshi has paid to promote the platform, according to the WSJ, which first reported on the account.
The @Polybaddies feed consists largely of reposts from Gen Z influencers promoting the site, where they shared selfies in Polymarket t-shirts and baseball caps. Some boasted about how much they had won on a bet.
