Tropical storm warnings for US coast with landfall TOMORROW… and a hurricane can’t be ruled out

Tropical storm warnings have been issued across parts of the US coast as a newly formed Gulf system closes in on the coast ahead of landfall Tuesday.

Tropical Depression Five developed over the northern Gulf of America on Monday, giving communities along the Texas and Louisiana coasts barely a day to prepare for deteriorating conditions. 

The system was about 120 miles south-southeast of Morgan City, Louisiana, and 230 miles southeast of Port Arthur, Texas at 1pm CDT, with maximum sustained winds of 35mph.

It was creeping west-northwest at 5mph and is forecast to strengthen into Tropical Storm Edouard as early as Monday night before reaching the northwestern Gulf Coast Tuesday.

The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) official forecast keeps the compact system below hurricane strength, but Meteorologist Dylan Federico said on X that ‘a hurricane can’t be ruled out.’

‘Residents there should be preparing for tropical storm force winds, heavy rain, and coastal flooding,’ he added. ‘This is a tiny storm so impacts will only be felt close to the center.’

The tropical storm warning stretches from Port Bolivar, Texas, to the Vermilion-Cameron Parish line in southwestern Louisiana.

The NHC warned that tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast Tuesday, making any outdoor preparations ‘difficult or dangerous.’

The warning means sustained winds of at least 39 mph are expected somewhere within the designated area during the next 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Depression Five formed after Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigated the disturbance Monday and found a closed circulation in the northern Gulf.

Aircraft data measured winds of 35 mph, with stronger gusts, while the storm’s estimated minimum central pressure stood at 1,012 millibars. 

That is only slightly below normal atmospheric pressure, showing the system remained weak for now, although a significant drop would signal that it was rapidly strengthening. 

Only modest strengthening is officially forecast before landfall, but the system needs to gain just 4mph to receive the name Edouard.

The depression is expected to maintain its general west-northwest motion during the next day or two, placing its projected landfall somewhere along the upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coast.

However, even a relatively small shift in the track could determine which communities experience the strongest winds, heaviest rain and deepest coastal flooding.

Forecasters emphasized that this is a very compact system rather than a sprawling or especially powerful storm, meaning its most serious effects should remain concentrated near its center.

Its small size could limit the overall damage footprint, but it also leaves communities nearest landfall with little time to respond after warnings were issued.

Heavy rainfall is expected to be the widest-reaching danger.

The depression could dump three to six inches of rain across the upper Texas coast and farther inland through east-central Texas, with isolated totals reaching nine inches.

Southwestern Louisiana is forecast to receive between two and three inches, although totals could vary significantly depending on the storm’s final path and where its strongest rain bands develop.

The NHC warned that the downpours could trigger flash flooding, particularly in urban communities and other low-lying areas where water can rise quickly.

Coastal communities also face a storm surge capable of pushing seawater into normally dry areas.

Water could rise one to three feet above ground between High Island, Texas, and the Vermilion-Iberia Parish line in Louisiana if the peak surge arrives near high tide.

The deepest flooding is expected along the immediate coastline near and to the east of the storm’s center, although water levels could change sharply over short distances.

Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin reaching the warning area Tuesday and could make last-minute work outside unsafe.

Officials urged people along the threatened stretch of coast to monitor alerts from their local National Weather Service offices because the track, rainfall forecast and warning boundaries could still change before landfall.

People in the projected path should finish securing outdoor items and gathering essential supplies before conditions worsen, while those in flood-prone areas should be ready to move to safer ground if local authorities issue further instructions.

No major hurricane strike is currently forecast, and the system is not expected to become a ‘monster.’