Trump won’t win Nobel Peace Prize but his shadow hangs over the award

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President Donald Trump will not win this year’s Nobel Peace Prize as he wages war with Iran, but his influence will still be felt by the awarding body that picks the laureate, according to experts.

Last year’s award, presented to Venezuela’s Maria Corina Machado, marked an unprecedented moment in the prize’s 125-year history after Trump persistently lobbied to secure the award himself. Weeks later, Machado handed her gold Nobel medal directly to Trump in a bid to gain support for her efforts to advance democracy in Venezuela.

This year, the five-member Norwegian Nobel Committee will be mindful of selecting a candidate capable of withstanding pressure from Trump, according to Haakon Gjerloew, acting director at the Peace Research Institute Oslo.

President Donald Trump holds a framed letter from Argentina’s President Javier Milei stating that Milei nominates Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize (Reuters)

“I think last year’s events around the Nobel Peace Prize, Maria Corina Machado giving it to Trump afterward, will affect some of the considerations that they make,” he told Reuters.

“One worry the committee might have is whether awarding it to someone could put them under pressure from Donald Trump … I think the committee will consider whether the award does more harm than good.”

The committee could be leaning towards Pope Leo

According to experts, that caution could lead the panel toward choices such as Pope Leo, the International Criminal Court, the International Court of Justice, or Francesca Albanese, the UN special rapporteur on the Occupied Palestinian Territories. The formal announcement is scheduled for October 9.

Leo, who made history as the first US-born pope, said he intends to keep speaking out against military conflicts. His comments came after the president described him as “weak” for voicing criticism of the U.S. conflict with Iran.

Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz near the beach of Bandar Abbas, Iran (Reuters)

The Pope’s encyclical on AI, his active advocacy for open dialogue and peaceful conflict resolution, his persistent calls for respect for migrants, and his ongoing humanitarian work could all justify the honor.

“The Pope stands (for) more than just as a religious figure. He has emerged as a leading thought leader,” Karim Haggag, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, told Reuters.

Another possible candidate has drawn a lot of criticism from the Trump admin

Meanwhile, Italy’s Albanese has drawn substantial criticism from both the U.S. and Israel over her sharp condemnation of Israel’s conduct during its war against Hamas in Gaza, as well as its occupation of the West Bank.

On the other hand, last year’s unexpected developments could produce the opposite reaction within the committee, prompting members to choose a safe, uncontroversial option that is far less likely to provoke Trump. The American leader previously criticized Norway, the nation where the prize is decided, for failing to grant him the award.

A safer path might involve recognizing Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, a local network of community organizations providing vital aid during the civil war, or the non-governmental group Save the Children for its efforts to help children trapped in violent conflicts.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney could steal the Nobel Peace Prize from Donald Trump after the president spent the year complaining about not receiving the award (Getty Images)

Nevertheless, the committee remains under significant scrutiny to directly address Trump’s ongoing challenges to the rules-based international order that the institution holds dear, noted Oeivind Stenersen, a historian who has authored works on the Nobel Peace Prize.

“They have a certain pressure … to be tough against Trump,” he told Reuters. “In this serious international situation, this year calls for a Peace Prize in defense of liberal democracy, international law and human rights.”

Honoring the ICC could come at a critical juncture when Washington is actively preparing broad sanctions against the tribunal, according to sources. Simultaneously, selecting the ICJ would underline the vital importance of respecting national sovereignty and resolving international disputes through peaceful means.

Trump has reportedly been nominated for the prize by government leaders in Cambodia, Israel, and Pakistan, though Gjerloew observed that his overall chances were “quite low”.

Trump’s overt pressure on the Norwegian Nobel Committee has deeply disturbed international observers and past recipients alike, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Ressa, a Filipino and American journalist who recalled watching last year’s proceedings with “horror”.

“Bullies don’t run the world,” she told Reuters during a visit to Oslo in September. “There are standards we live by. Might doesn’t make it right.”