Trump’s hot streak appears over as a slew of election picks fail him
On Wednesday, Fox News dropped polls out of a host of states, including for the governor’s races in Iowa and Georgia.
The numbers should not inspire confidence for Republicans in states Trump won in 2024, particularly Iowa, which he turned from a perpetual swing state to blood red in the span of a decade.
In Georgia, which is becoming bluer with almost each election, Republican businessman Rick Jackson trails former Atlanta Mayor Keshia Lance Bottoms by five percentage points at 52 percent to 47 percent. The numbers are worse in Iowa, where Democratic Auditor Rob Sand is beating Zach Lahn 53 percent to 44 percent.
But perhaps the most interesting part is that Trump endorsed neither of these candidates in their gubernatorial primaries. In both cases, Trump endorsed their opponents: in Georgia, he endorsed Lt. Governor Burt Jones, whom he had supported to replace the anti-Trump Republican Geoff Duncan; and in Iowa, he endorsed Rep. Randy Feenstra to be the Republican nominee for governor.
It’s a sign that while Trump still has an tight grip on the GOP, he might be losing some control of the party as it looks beyond him.
And these are not the only places where Trump’s endorsement has come up short. In June, he endorsed Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette to replace Henry McMaster in the Republican primary for governor of South Carolina, spurning Rep. Nancy Mace, who would place fifth in the primary.
But in the days after the primary and ahead of the runoff, much of the South Carolina Republican establishment would coalesce around Attorney General Alan Wilson. In the leadup to the runoff, he endorsed both Evette and Wilson.
This was clearly a face-saving effort as much as anything, as Trump had endorsed Feenstra just days before the primary in Iowa, only for Feenstra to lose. He also reiterated his support for Jones as well, though he had backed Jones in 2025, only for him to lose to the self-funded Jackson.
And this came after he had refused to rescind his endorsement of Rep. Tony Gonzales in Texas’s 23rd district for re-election even as scandals continued to pile up amid his primary. Gonzales would wind up going to a runoff against MAGA candidate Brendan Herrera before he ultimately resigned after confessing to an extramarital affair with a former staffer who later died after she set herself on fire.
During the same Texas primary, his preferred candidate, incumbent Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller, lost to Nathan Sheets, whom Gov. Greg Abbott supported.
This is not to say Trump always picks losers. He clearly doesn’t. He endorsed a little-known primary challenger to Rep. Thomas Massie in Ed Gallrein and won after he and the GOP establishment marshaled all of its resources. He also endorsed Texas’s Attorney General Ken Paxton against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Senate primary. And he backed Rep. Julia Letlow in the successful primary against Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) in Louisiana. He also endorsed Mike Collins in the runoff for the Georgia Senate primary to challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.).
But some of this was padding the batting average. Polling showed that Cornyn was going to win and this was as much about Trump being on the side of a winner as it was anything else. It just meant Cornyn would lose by a bigger margin. Cassidy likely knew he would lose in 2021 after he voted to convict Trump for January 6.
It was just a matter of finding the right pick. And he endorsed Collins right before the runoff took place as polling showed Collins would likely win; it also gave him the added benefit of taking out the hand-picked candidate of Gov. Brian Kemp, with whom he clashed.
Trump likes to point to his endorsement batting average. But he pads the stats by endorsing incumbents with no serious challengers.
