‘We could be in some trouble’: As Covid cases soar, experts reveal the truth about the troubling new variants sweeping Britain, if they’re worse than last time… and whether you really need another jab
It is the heart-sinking prospect few wanted to hear – Covid is on the rise again. New figures show cases have doubled since August – with one in 12 hospital tests now coming back positive and admissions up by a third in just a week. Around 2,000 patients are currently being treated – still far below the peaks of recent years, but a reminder the virus has never gone away.
At the same time, other winter bugs are beginning to stir. Rhinovirus, the common cold, has surged in the past month, flu infections are climbing, and doctors are once again braced for a possible return of RSV and norovirus.
The unwelcome convergence has raised fears of another so-called ‘quin-demic’ this winter – when five major viruses strike at once, stretching NHS services to breaking point.
The Covid surge, according to scientists, is being driven by two new coronavirus variants which, while no more dangerous than previous strains, appear to be highly infectious.
And, with uptake of the latest Covid vaccine falling to a record low, experts warn this could mean thousands more catch the virus and end up in hospital in the coming weeks, putting strain on the system and potentially leading to the cancellation of routine procedures such as heart operations and hip replacements.
‘Because we’re not testing widely any more, the cases we are spotting are just the tip of the iceberg,’ says Professor Lawrence Young, a virologist at the University of Warwick.
‘Most people have not had a vaccine in some time, meaning they have waning immunity, and these variants appear to be particularly infectious, so I’d expect cases to keep rising.
‘If flu takes off soon, and people don’t come forwards for their Covid or flu jabs, then we could be in some trouble. A combined wave of flu and Covid could put more pressure on already stretched NHS services, and we know that when that happens, this can disrupt routine care.’
With that in mind, The Mail on Sunday has turned to some of the country’s leading virus experts to explain what the latest Covid wave really means – from the distinctive new symptoms to the simple steps you can take to avoid infection. Read on to find out more…
Surprisingly, five years on from the start of the pandemic, experts remain divided on the benefits of face masks
It’s been a while since I last had Covid – or a jab. How worried about my health should I be?
For the vast majority of people, the latest Covid variants pose no serious health risk.
The strains – XFG, dubbed Stratus, and NB.1.8.1, known as Nimbus – are fuelling the current surge in infections. Early research suggests they are more transmissible than recent strains, meaning they are better at evading the body’s first line of defences and triggering infection.
However, most people are unlikely to fall seriously ill with either Stratus or Nimbus. Both are offshoots of Omicron – the highly infectious variant that swept across the UK at the end of 2022.
‘Stratus and Nimbus are quite significantly different to other variants we’ve seen in recent years,’ says Professor Jonathan Ball, a virologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. ‘That makes it easier for them to infect patients, as the immune system hasn’t had the chance to learn to resist them.
‘However, both are derived from Omicron, which a large proportion of the population has already caught. This means that most people will have underlying immunity. Combine this with the fact that most people have had upwards of three vaccines, this means that these variants are unlikely to be particularly dangerous.
‘The exception to this might be those who are older or more vulnerable who have not had a vaccine recently.’
I haven’t been invited for a Covid vaccine this year – will I be offered one now that it’s on the rise again?
Starting this month, over-75s, care home residents and those with severely weakened immune systems will be offered a Covid booster – and experts say this is unlikely to change despite the recent rise in cases.
Last year, boosters were also offered to those between 65 and 75. But research shows that, thanks to immunity built up from previous infections as well as vaccines, people in this age group now face only a low risk of developing severe Covid.
It is a far cry from the early days of the pandemic, when anyone over 50 was seen to be at vastly greater risk.
Some High Street pharmacists are offering private Covid jabs to adults and children over 12, usually for around £100. However, Prof Ball says: ‘It’s clear now that it’s only those over 75 and the immunocompromised who need regular booster jabs.’
Experts say the Government does need to focus on persuading those who are eligible to come forwards. The last vaccine rollout, in spring, saw the lowest uptake yet, with only half of those invited getting the jab.
Experts put this down to ‘vaccine fatigue’, with some older Britons having been offered as many as 11 doses since the start of the pandemic. ‘Covid no longer impacts our lives in the same way it used to,’ says Prof Ball. ‘People think about it less, so they feel less need to get vaccinated.’
Even so, experts stress it is important that those eligible do take up the offer this autumn. The current boosters are not the same as the first Covid jabs – they were updated last year to target strains in the Omicron family, which was markedly different from the Covid that first emerged in 2020, with dozens of mutations that made it far more infectious and better at slipping past immunity.
Because the new variants Stratus and Nimbus are offshoots of Omicron, the updated vaccines are expected to give strong protection against them.
For the vast majority of people, the latest Covid variants pose no serious health risk
I’d like to avoid getting sick if possible – what can I do to evade the virus?
Experts say the best way to cut the risk of catching the new Covid variants is to limit time spent in poorly ventilated indoor spaces.
‘Covid passes best in enclosed spaces like a packed train,’ says Prof Ball. ‘It’s the same reason we tend to see viruses like colds and flu making a comeback in the winter – because people increasingly spend time indoors. So if you are really set on avoiding Covid, the best thing you can do is avoid large groups of people meeting indoors.’
Children in schools, residents in care homes and NHS staff are all seen as particularly at risk, as infections can spread rapidly through these groups.
Surprisingly, five years on from the start of the pandemic, experts remain divided on the benefits of face masks.
Large studies have produced conflicting results. A 2023 Cochrane review – regarded as the gold standard for scientific research – concluded that most studies ‘did not show a clear reduction in respiratory viral infection with the use of medical/surgical masks’.
‘It’s probably safer to wear a mask than not if you’re trying to avoid Covid,’ adds Prof Ball. ‘But the benefits are limited.’
It seems like there’s a lot of bugs going around at the moment – how do I know whether it’s Covid?
Early reports suggest the Stratus and Nimbus variants can trigger a distinctive ‘razor blade’ sore throat, along with other more typical Covid symptoms.
The uncomfortable problem has been recorded in the US where the variants have been spreading for longer.
‘There have been a lot of anecdotal reports of a raspy “razor blade” sore throat,’ says Prof Young. ‘It’s not clear how many patients get this symptom, but there does seem to be some departure from the classic Covid symptoms of a runny nose, cough and headache.’
However, experts say that, with the common cold also on the rise in the UK, it would be unwise to self-diagnose based on symptoms alone. ‘There’s a lot of overlap in symptoms between colds and Covid,’ says Prof Ball. ‘You can also get a sore throat from a cold.’
Instead, experts say the only reliable way to know if someone has Covid is testing for the virus. The Government no longer funds free Covid tests – known as lateral flows, which involve swabbing the mouth and nose for virus particles. But most high street pharmacists will sell such kits, usually costing around £10 for five tests.
Since Covid is not really any worse than a cold these days, is it fine to go to work if I think I’ve got it?
Anyone with suspected Covid symptoms – or a positive test – should consider staying at home for up to seven days, experts advise. ‘People who catch Covid appear to be most infectious in the three to seven days after symptoms begin,’ says Prof Ball.
‘So if you are able to work at home while sick that would be the best thing to do, to avoid passing it on to others.’ For those who cannot stay home, experts recommend wearing a face mask.
While evidence that masks protect the wearer is limited, studies have shown that they can reduce the risk of passing the virus on.
‘If you’ve got any Covid or cold-like symptoms and you need to be out and about, wearing a face mask would be a good idea,’ says Prof Young.
Experts also stress the importance of staying away from people who may be especially vulnerable.
‘Think twice before visiting your elderly relative in a care home or someone who’s undergoing medical treatment that weakens their immune system,’ says Prof Young. ‘That doesn’t mean avoid them all winter – just wait a week or so.’
