What the escalating war between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis means for Trump in Iran
Yemen’s Houthi rebels have forced a lightning offensive to the Red Sea coast, assuming control over another vital waterway in the region and threatening to expand the frozen US-Israeli conflict with Iran to the east.
By securing a position overlooking the narrow Bab el-Mandeb strait, the Iran-aligned group has opened a second pressure point, further squeezing Saudi Arabia’s oil exports already diverted from the Strait of Hormuz.
The sudden land grab over the last week has been accompanied by an aerial campaign against military instalments in southern Saudi Arabia, shifting the balance of power after more than a decade at war.
Analysts say the main aim of the offensive is to secure control over the Red Sea as Iran maintains its grip over Hormuz, allowing them to raise oil prices and making it harder for Washington to resolve the crisis.
Gulf states – already deliberating over Iran’s ambitions to control shipping through Hormuz – will have to choose between tolerating the status quo and engaging with Tehran to protect trade across the region, they say.
Already fighting a deeply unpopular war to the east, Donald Trump has avoided any commitment to bailing ally Saudi Arabia out with strikes against the Houthis, though experts say US intervention may be needed to break the Houthi grip on the Red Sea.
The Independent looks at what the Houthi advance means for regional stability.
The Houthi rebels are a military, political and religious movement that rules over most of northwest Yemen and has disrupted global trade and energy markets with strikes on cargo ships and tankers in the Red Sea.
The group exploited the chaos of the 2011 Arab Spring to oust the internationally recognised government from Sanaa in 2014, beginning the devastating Yemeni civil war.
Fearing the Iran-aligned group could seize control of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, and therefore threaten Riyadh’s ability to export oil, Saudi Arabia intervened a year later, supported by the US, UK, France and others.
A UN-brokered ceasefire followed in 2022 and since then, both sides have refrained from major escalatory actions. Iran has not directly intervened in Yemen, but the fighting is considered part of a wider Iran-Saudi proxy conflict.
It was during the Israeli war in Gaza, from 2023 to 2025, that the Houthis started attacking ships in the Red Sea in support of Iran-aligned Hamas. The UK and US hit Houthi targets in 2025 as part of a campaign to restore freedom of navigation.
Crucially, Trump last year struck a deal to end the US strikes on the Houthis in exchange for a halt to strikes on Red Sea shipping. Taking on the group now would likely expose US forces in the region to missile attacks from Yemen.
Clashes with Saudi Arabia restarted in July as both sides enforced new blockades on maritime traffic. The Houthis struck Saudi oil tankers accused of violating their blockade.
