Why Sheza Alibi is my pick to win $10 million feature
Opinion
Class doesn’t lie. It just waits for the right moment to remind you it’s there – and that’s precisely why Sheza Alibi will win the $10 million Golden Eagle at Royal Randwick this Saturday.
Forget her recent shock defeat in the Might And Power Stakes at Caulfield. Yes, the punters who backed her were left shell-shocked when Land Legend pulled off a front-running heist. But if you look deeper, that brutally run 2000-metre race could be the ultimate conditioning stint for a grand final.
Co-trainer Peter Moody didn’t blink after the loss, and why should he? The form out of that Caulfield race has already been franked in spectacular fashion, with runners bouncing off it to dominate spring features. Sheza Alibi now drops back to the 1500m trip, a distance that sits beautifully in her wheelhouse.
Let’s look at the facts. She is an absolute titan over the Randwick layout, having already captured the group 1 Randwick Guineas and Doncaster Handicap double earlier this year. She has that lethal, explosive sprint that breaks the hearts of elite fields.
While the critics argue that a gut-busting 2000m run followed by a three-week freshen-up is playing with fire, Peter Moody and Katherine Coleman know their mare better than anyone.
The bookies aren’t foolish either, keeping her as the resolute top seed against rivals like Autumn Boy. This Saturday, under what we hope will be the golden Sydney sun, expect Sheza Alibi to bounce back big time and do what she does best.
She’s a superstar, and the Golden Eagle is her destiny.
The biggest threats to spoiling the Sheza Alibi party come wrapped in a Chris Waller-trained double-act.
First you have Autumn Boy. Forget his Epsom Handicap hiccup. He is a group 1 Rosehill Guineas winner who has chased home Sheza Alibi three times. With James McDonald engaged in Melbourne on the weekend, Hong Kong jockey Zac Purton is jetting in to take the ride.
Then there’s Beiwacht. He didn’t get the cash in the Silver Eagle, but his effort was still respectable carrying a big weight. Waller has tinkered with his gear and Beiwacht will have a Norton bit (a bit commonly used in racing for hard-pulling horses) to assist jockey Nash Rawiller.
If Sheza Alibi is at all vulnerable, one of this deadly duo will get her.
In the Derby lottery, stick with Sydney form
The Victoria Derby is rarely a race for the faint-hearted. But this Saturday’s 2500m staying test at Flemington is shaping as an absolute punting lottery.
In looking for a class edge to cut through the standard Derby chaos, I think we need to look directly at the Sydney form line.
Cormier and Stormy Marco are backing up after gallant efforts in last week’s group 1 Spring Champion Stakes. While the Melbourne lead-up races have been tactical battles, these two sharpened their claws in a genuine dogfight.
Cormier set the pace that day and stuck on gamely for third. He looks to get a great trip from an inside draw.
Then you have Stormy Marco. Prepared by master trainer Chris Waller – who knows exactly how to get one to peak for a Flemington classic – this bloke had to make a sustained run from the back and was still working home strongly at the business end.
He is drawn wide yet again, but if he gets the right luck in the running then he will be hard to hold out. If the forecasted rain arrives, that will only benefit him further.
The market has it wrong. Focus on this $21 chance
I must be missing something. Under Focus is at $21 in early markets in the Coolmore.
He had zero luck from wide gates in the lead-up to the Golden Rose. Then, in the group 1 feature itself, he was massive – finishing third after racing up on the hot speed.
He absorbed the pressure and still had the audacity and heart to kick on and place.
He has a low draw over the straight six. Is that a good or bad thing? Well, who knows how the track will be playing at this early stage? He looks to be the early value. In saying all that, I still think Satono Glow is the one to beat.
In a race that is known as a stallion-making event, I feel this filly can spoil the party for connections of the colts. She is already a dual winner down the Flemington straight and showed she is on top of her game when unleashing off a fast tempo to bury her rivals last start in the Roman Consul.
I have plenty of respect for St Gotthard and The Next Episode. St Gotthard was a gallant runner-up in the Golden Rose and gets blinkers on here, while this race has been The Next Episode’s primary focus all campaign.
While others have been scrapping in hot group 1 races, he has bided his time and is ready to ambush them. He loves soft ground, too, should the rain come.
Bank on the Lady, she’s the bet of the day
On Derby Day you need a banker, and it needs to land. There’s a long week ahead, and a winning start is vital.
Lady Shenandoah looks the bet of the day at Flemington. Coming off a group 1 Toorak Handicap (1600m) win, this girl comes back to set weight mares company in race 8, the group 1 TAB Empire Rose Stakes over a mile. She looks particularly well-placed.
I like Flying For Fun in the Asahi Super Dry Sprint. She was unlucky not to have won a group 1 in the Autumn, and her two starts this campaign suggest she is going well. She has found a lovely race here, and if the straight track is playing fair, she will be hard to hold out.
Under Focus is the early overs on the day, as suggested above. He doesn’t deserve to be paying that much in the Coolmore Stud Stakes.
Ally Mosley is an expert analyst for Sky Racing and a presenter on Nine’s Melbourne Cup week coverage.
Ally Mosley – Worked with trainer Tony McEvoy at Flemington. The fast-paced industry in NSW appealed and Ally moved to Sydney in 2019. Ally loves racing and in her spare time can be found hanging out with her retired racehorse Gerry.