Bailey’s fears AI could trigger next crash should not be sneezed at, says ALEX BRUMMER

Andrew Bailey’s worry about artificial intelligence (AI) going rogue is no secret. 

Yet, he has taken the argument much further in an unusual personal note distributed with the Bank of England’s latest financial stability minutes.

Bailey wants urgent action, given evidence that AI systems are so powerful and self-generating that they test society’s ability to erect guardrails.

Risks to the financial system are terrifying. AI cyber attacks on payments networks, financial markets infrastructure, banks and even central banks are becoming a clear danger.

Small wonder some senior enforcers privately are recommending citizens keep some cash in a biscuit tin, under the mattress or in a safe box in case of a meltdown.

As if this were not alarming enough, the Bank’s financial enforcers are not mincing their words on AI market risk.

A combination of AI debt, Middle East war and surging bond yields makes for deep foreboding.

Global AI debt has doubled in the last year to $450billion (£397billion), according to data quoted by the Bank. JP Morgan estimates it could rise exponentially to $4.1trillion (£3.6trillion) by 2030.

That is more than the size of the UK economy. In Britain alone, AI accounts for 47 per cent of all the sterling corporate bonds issued this year.

A chunk of the AI borrowing comes from private credit where the Old Lady and other central bankers have limited visibility. This is an unwanted consequence of the tight capital requirements on commercial banks and insurance firms since the Great Financial Crisis.

Getting any grip on the exposure of the monetary system to these threats is hard because of the circularity and incestuous nature of much of this lending.

No one knows what will trigger the next crash. It could be a sharper-than-expected rise in interest rates, a trade shock, another Lehman Brothers-style event, or an out-of-control AI robot.

Despite warnings, herd instincts, which drive financial markets and greed, are impossible to corral.

Audit VAR

The Financial Reporting Council (FRC) is not renowned for being the sharpest City enforcer.

Former mandarin Sir John Kingman, now Barclays UK chairman, recommended it be replaced by a tougher and more empowered Audit, Reporting and Governance Authority (Arga).

Despite appearing in several royal speeches from the throne, it never happened. So, the FRC reformed itself early this year, with accelerated enforcement powers. Now it has a golden opportunity to show its mettle.

Football is not known for the highest governance standards. However, the Premier League’s findings on Manchester City’s infringements, due to be appealed, could not be more damning, with allegations of sham accounting amounting to £900million.

An obvious question is what were the auditors up to?

For an enterprise of Man City’s scale and on-field success it might have expected to be a client of one of the Big Four firms.

We know only too well from the audits of Co-op Bank when it absorbed the Britannia Building Society in 2009 and PwC’s audit of Tesco a decade ago that elite companies are fallible.

Auditors at Man City are second-tier firm BDO. There is no evidence to show that the club’s executive and accounting teams shared details of sham contracts and invented income streams with outside auditors. Nevertheless, BDO is certainly worth scrutiny.

The FRC could bolster its reputation by stepping in with an accelerated probe, showing a willingness to take stern action.

Future shock

Marie Claire owner Future plc is winning few fans. The board, headed by former investment banker Mark Brooker, cancelled the modest share buybacks to focus on lowering debt.

Long investors are agitated, which is not surprising given a crushing 92.5 per cent drop in the shares in the last five years.

An activist shareholder favours disposal of previously prized asset Go Compare, bought for £594million five years ago. 

Future better be speedy. Price comparison sites are under fierce pressure from AI searches.