Israel bombing Lebanon jeopardises the peace deal with Iran – and all our futures are at stake
Israel bombed Lebanon so intensely on Wednesday that witnesses, and the wounded, told The Independent it felt like they had unleashed a “ring of fire” on the capital, Beirut, and an “earthquake” across the rest of the country.
Over 100 targets were hit in just 10 minutes, according to Israel’s count. More than 250 people were killed and over 1,000 injured, according to the Lebanese Civil Defence. They are still digging bodies out of the rubble.
This “absolute massacre”, as it was described by a renowned British conflict surgeon in a Beirut emergency room, does not just impact Lebanon.
It is already jeopardising the future of a long-awaited and deeply fragile truce between the US, Israel and Iran. A truce which hangs in the balance.
This deal, this resolution to a global nightmare, is desperately needed for the civilians chewed up in the violence – and for us all.
It is not just about the worst disruption to global energy supplies in history, shuttered airports bringing movement around the world to a near halt, and the related soaring cost of living, it is about our very security and future.
This conflict has engulfed major global chokepoints, like the transport hubs of Emirati and Qatari airports, and the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas pass.
The theatre of war has already stretched across at least 13 countries, and so the potential for a conflict this complex to metastasise is extremely high.
I regularly check in with Gulf diplomats. They have been increasingly worried that their nations, coming under retaliatory fire from Iran over Israeli and US bombings, will be forcibly dragged into it. In blunt terms, they have warned it could see them bomb Iran back.
More and more nations exchanging fire means an uncertain and bleak future that none of us can predict.
So it was no wonder the world breathed a sigh of relief when the truce, brokered by Pakistan, was announced. But the hard work has only just begun.
The likelihood of thrashing out any semblance of a deal from this pause already seems near impossible.
There are yawning, nay existential, chasms between the demands and red lines of both sides, including, though not exhaustively: who gets control of the Strait of Hormuz; the future of Iran’s nuclear programme; and Tehran’s ballistic missile capabilities.
At the same time, the temperature was pushed to apocalyptic levels by Donald Trump’s rhetoric when he declared he would wipe out “a whole civilization” in Iran shortly before the pause was announced.
