Midterms Senate poll tracker: Will the Democrats overturn Trump’s key majority?

Democrats face a steep task in November’s midterm elections if they want to take the US Senate from Republican hands.

They need to win at least four seats to gain net seats. Voter discontent with President Donald Trump, the Iran war and rising prices has put races in once-solidly Republican states into play. Thirty-five Senate seats are up for reelection this year.

As Election Day arrives, most polling shows that Democrats hold tight leads across most battleground states.

Republicans are defending 22 seats, while Democrats hold 13. The GOP currently controls the chamber with a 53-47 majority. Because Republican Vice President JD Vance can break tie votes, Democrats need 51 seats to win control. At the start of the year, a Democratic takeover looked unlikely.

Since then, Democrats have become competitive in states Trump won handily in 2024, even as Republicans pursue Democratic-held seats. The political winds are swirling against Trump and Republicans, as they historically do in midterm elections for the party in power.

Voters are dissatisfied with Trump’s job performance as the war in Iran continues and gas prices are soaring. Senate Republicans went into the election feeling optimistic, largely thanks to the map.

Here is what that uphill path to power looks like for Democrats.

The most straightforward route to the majority involves Democrats holding all of their seats, including the battlegrounds of Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire. On top of that, they will need to pick up four more seats, and their best opportunities are in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas.

In Georgia, Jon Ossoff holds a healthy lead in the polls over Republican Rep. Mike Collins

Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia is heading into his reelection campaign as a rare bright spot for Democrats. The Democratic senator was first elected after the 2021 Georgia U.S. Senate runoff, alongside Sen. Raphael Warnock. That double victory handed Democrats control of the Senate.

His slickly produced campaign videos have now gone viral. They have driven buzz that he may be seeking the presidency in 2028.

He has used Trump’s baseless complaints of election fraud in Georgia as a foil, calling the president the “world’s most famous sore loser.” His campaign is also benefiting from a weakened GOP nominee.

On election day, Ossoff holds a healthy lead over his Republican rival, Rep. Mike Collins, according to all major polls.

Echelon Insights has Ossoff at 55 percent to Collins 44 percent. Activote has a similar number, with Quantus Insights clocking the senator at 51 percent.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and the University of Georgia polls put Ossoff at 48 percent to Collins’ 44 percent, with 12 percent undecided.

In New Hampshire, it’s an 84% chance their Senate seat stays blue

A New Hampshire political dynasty stands between Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and the Senate seat vacated by Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. Former Sen. John Sununu wants to return to the seat he once held, and he is the brother of former Gov. Chris Sununu and the son of former Gov. John H. Sununu. Sununu beat Shaheen in the 2002 U.S. Senate election.

Six years later, Shaheen won the rematch. Pappas brings his own New Hampshire pedigree to the contest, through a family business that is a state institution in its own right. He and his family own the Puritan Backroom, a Manchester restaurant that has been around since 1917. The restaurant claims to have invented the chicken tender.

Polls have shown the race is tight, and Republicans believe the Sununu name can help them flip the seat. A stumbling block could be Trump’s huge unpopularity in New Hampshire, but the president’s approval ratings stand at around 32 percent on election day.

As of November 3, PollCheck has Pappas holding 50.2 percent of the vote to Sununu’s 43.5 percent. That means an 84 percent chance that the seat stays Democrat.

The GOP has not won a Senate seat in the state since 2010. The last two governors in the Granite State, however, have been Republican.

Polls indicate Democrat Troy Jackson may be about to unseat Sen. Susan Collins in Maine

Maine Democrats turned to Troy Jackson, a former state Senate president, at an emergency nominating convention after their original candidate withdrew amid an accusation of sexual assault. Polling shows Jackson and Sen. Susan Collins in a neck-and-neck race.

Collins is the lone Republican representing a state that has never voted for Trump. As in her last election six years ago, Democrats are her top target. Ousting her, however, is proving to be anything but straightforward.

The party initially nominated Graham Platner, an oyster farmer who ran an energetic grassroots campaign. His bid forced Gov. Janet Mills, Senate Democrats’ preferred pick, to suspend her campaign before voters cast ballots. He then withdrew his candidacy after he was accused of sexual assault.

Jackson finished third in the first round of the gubernatorial primary. He was endorsed in that contest by progressive stalwart Sen. Bernie Sanders.

As of November 3, most polls show Jackson leading over Collins. The New York Times/Siena College puts Jackson at 51 percent and Collins at 45 percent.

While the University of New Hampshire shows Jackson leading Collins by nine percentage points, 54 percent to 45.

Roy Cooper leads Republican Mike Whatley in North Carolina’s polls

Democrats have not won a federal race in North Carolina since former President Barack Obama carried the state in 2008. The party believes former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper can end that run, and his decision to run for Senate has given Democrats arguably their best recruit of this year.

Cooper was first elected governor in 2016 and reelected in 2020, winning his race while Trump won at the top of the ballot. His opponent will be Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman and chairman of the North Carolina Republican Party. Whatley is a staunch Trump ally, with no daylight between him and the Trump administration’s policy positions.

He is making his first bid for public office. Throughout the campaign, Whatley has trailed Cooper in fundraising and polls. Republicans have had the edge in ad spending, but that advantage has tapered as the party has shifted resources to other races.

Democrats have had success in statewide races in North Carolina, while Republicans have held the edge in federal contests. In 2024, Democrats won the governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general races, all while Trump carried the state.

Election Day polls show that Cooper has a nine-percentage-point lead over Whatley, 54 percent to 45.

Democrats eye rare Alaska flip as Mary Peltola carries extremely narrow polling advantage over Sen. Dan Sullivan

Mary Peltola’s decision to run for Senate has handed Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and his fellow Democrats a target in a Republican-held seat in Alaska. The former House member is taking on GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan, a low-key conservative who rarely strays from the party line.

Peltola first came to Congress through a U.S. House special election in 2022, winning the seat left vacant by the death of Rep. Don Young. She went on to win a full term later that year, defeating former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin. A former tribal judge, Peltola made history as the first Alaska Native to represent the state in Congress. She would achieve the same first if elected to the U.S. Senate.

Her House career ended when she lost reelection in 2024 to GOP Rep. Nick Begich. Polls suggest the Senate contest is a very close race, and Peltola has worked to position herself as an independent voice. She has distanced herself from national Democratic political figures.

Latest polls from MS NOW show that Peltola carries an extremely narrow two-percentage-point lead over Sullivan.

Democrat Paralympian Josh Turek has a razor-thin polling lead in Iowa over Ashley Hinson

Iowa will elect a new senator for the first time since 2014, after Sen. Joni Ernst decided to retire from the seat she won for the Republicans that year. Her departure has created an opening that Democrats believe they can exploit in a state Barack Obama once carried in presidential elections.

The party’s nominee is state Rep. Josh Turek, who has spent two terms representing a competitive state House district. He also brings a sporting pedigree to the race, with two Paralympic gold medals. Democrats are hoping Turek can drive their supporters to the polls and appeal to some of the 572,000 Iowa voters registered as nonpartisan.

Their calculation rests on a political environment that has been difficult for Republicans, with Trump tariffs and rising gas prices affecting Iowans. The contest will not be easy for Turek, however. Trump has won Iowa in each of the last three presidential elections, and Republicans have controlled the governor’s office and both chambers of the state legislature since 2017.

The Democrat carries a razor-thin lead over Hinson going into election day of about one percentage point, according to MS NOW.

Polls show the GOP could be about to lose a Senate seat to Democrats for the first time since 1988

Texas has not sent a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, but the party sees a rare opening in this year’s Senate race. The last Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state was Jimmy Carter, in 1976. Democrats have not won a Senate race in Texas since 1988.

The party came close in 2018, when former Rep. Beto O’Rourke fell to Sen. Ted Cruz by roughly 3 percentage points. Former Vice President Kamala Harris went on to lose Texas by nearly 14 percentage points. The contest is now firmly in play, largely because of an expensive and bruising primary on the Republican side. Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in that primary, with ad spending surpassing $128 million.

Paxton, a Trump ally, has been plagued with scandal during his tenure as the state’s attorney general, and was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 and nearly removed from office, but the state Senate narrowly voted to acquit him.

Election Day polls give Talarico a narrow four-percentage-point lead over Paxton, according to FiftyPlusOne.

Three polls released on November 1 gave Talarico a similar advantage of around 51 percent to 47.

Sherrod Brown mounts comeback bid against appointed Sen. Jon Husted in Ohio clash

Ohio’s Senate race this November pits a familiar Democratic name against a Republican incumbent appointed only this year. Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost his seat to Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno two years ago, is running for the state’s other Senate seat. His opponent is Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed in 2025 to the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance. Data centers sit at the center of both campaigns.

Brown has often called his opponent the “face of data centers” in Ohio. Husted has been trying to separate himself from that image. One of his clearest counters to that label, a bill related to energy costs of data centers, failed to pass the Senate last week. His hopes of returning to Washington rest on whether his name and past record still resonate in a state that has grown more Republican.

Ohio has not elected a Democrat to statewide executive office since 2008, and Trump has carried the state in the last three presidential elections. Despite that shift towards Republicans over the past decade, Brown has continuously outperformed Democratic presidential candidates in Ohio since first winning his old Senate seat in 2006. Democrats are hoping he will do it again.

Brown holds a tight lead over Husted going into Election Day, polls show, with most polls showing the Democrat ahead by about 48 to 45 percent.