Storm Marie to become hurricane TODAY as rare track threatens millions in California
Another hurricane is forming in the Pacific, and weather models predict this one may come closer or even land a direct hit on the California Coast.
Tropical Storm Marie is expected to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane on Wednesday, with sustained winds of more than 75 mph.
It is currently moving along the coast of Mexico and will soon reach the Baja California Peninsula, the thin, 775-mile-long strip of land right below California and the US-Mexico border.
The National Hurricane Center has warned that Marie is expected to remain a hurricane through Sunday as it barrels up the West Coast.
However, new spaghetti models, which track all possible paths of tropical storms and hurricanes, warn that Marie has a strong likelihood of turning directly towards Southern California, potentially making landfall in Los Angeles or San Diego.
The National Weather Service has already warned beachgoers in Los Angeles that there is a high risk for large waves and dangerous rip currents throughout the Labor Day holiday weekend.
Coastal flooding is also predicted to be a concern along beaches and shorelines facing the south this weekend.
A Pacific cyclone has never made landfall in California at hurricane strength. The last tropical storm to make landfall was in September 1997 when Nora crossed from Mexico into the US.
Tropical Storm Marie (Pictured) is expected to reach hurricane status on September 2, 2026
Marie is expected to remain a hurricane through at least Sunday, September 6
Two major forecasting models, the so-called American and European models, both show multiple tracks which could take Marie towards a historic landfall in Southern California.
Meteorologist Levi Cowan aggregated dozens of these potential routes from the National Weather Service’s Global Forecast System and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts to build the latest spaghetti models.
Those models, seen on Cowan’s website Tropical Tidbits, largely agree that the Pacific cyclone will continue rolling along the Baja Peninsula through the weekend, but its path after that becomes unclear.
Roughly half of the predictions show Marie turning east and spiraling into multiple California cities, including San Diego, Los Angeles, Long Beach, Santa Clara and Santa Barbara.
The other half of the current predictions favor Marie continuing to head straight and remaining in the Pacific until it fades.
It is important to note that forecast models can shift dramatically once storms form and get closer to making landfall. The farther into the future a forecast model tries to predict, the weaker the certainty of it being correct gets.
Meteorologist Sebastian Westerink from the National Weather Service expressed skepticism that Marie would maintain its strength all the way to California, predicting it would weaken in the colder waters closer to the West Coast.
Westerink told the Los Angeles Times: ‘By the time this storm reaches Southern California, it will very likely be below hurricane status and even tropical storm status.’
Weather officials have already warned that beachgoers in Los Angeles (Pictured) should stay close to lifeguard stations this weekend due to dangerous rip currents expected (Stock Image)
The American forecasting model, known as GFS, has predicted multiple tracks where Marie will turn towards Southern California
A tropical storm has not taken such a path, from the Pacific Ocean straight into the California Coast, in nearly a century, when the Long Beach Tropical Storm landed in 1939.
Meanwhile, hurricanes in California have never been regarded as a real threat due to the California Current bringing much colder water closer to the coast, depriving major storms of the warm ocean water they need for fuel.
At the same time, storms have been regularly blocked from reaching California by prevailing northeast trade winds, which steer eastern Pacific cyclones to the west – towards Hawaii or open water.
Despite their rarity, meteorologists have feared that 2026 could be a historic year for Pacific storms, thanks to the emergence of a potentially record-setting El Niño.
El Niño is the commonly used term for the natural weather phenomenon where sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific rise beyond their historical averages.
This can have a major impact on weather patterns around the world, including dampening hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean and causing much colder and wetter winters in the southern US.
This year’s El Niño is predicted to be one of the strongest in history, causing many to use the term ‘Super El Niño’ to describe water temperatures in the Pacific potentially rising by 4.8°F (2.66°C) – which would be the highest jump on record.
El Niño also lessens disruptive wind shear, which tears apart the structure of tropical cyclones. The combination of calmer winds and warmer water create the perfect recipe for long-lasting hurricanes which have more time to make landfall.
The European forecasting model, known as EPS, has also predicting several paths that would take Marie toward the US West Coast
Pictured: Satellite image of Hurricane Lowell (Left), Hurricane Karina (Center) and Tropical Storm Marie (Right) in the Pacific Ocean in September 2, 2026
AccuWeather’s Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok told the Daily Mail in June: ‘There could be some insane flooding that could take place, not only just in the summer, but it could even be out of season as well into the wintertime.’
‘You gotta watch the combination of the monsoon and marine heatwave. A marine heatwave that’s near the Baja, with El Niño combined, you’ve got three things working to possibly produce some unusual type of wet weather in Southern California, Phoenix, Tucson, in that area there.’
There are currently three major storms barreling through the Pacific. Hurricane Karina has reached Category 4 status, with catastrophic winds of 145 mph. Karina was feared to threaten California last week but veered into the Pacific.
Hurricane Lowell has also grown into a Category 4 hurricane and is moving just to the south of Hawaii. NHC has warned that residents and tourists on the islands should continue to monitor Lowell as the storm is predicted to turn north this weekend.
There have already been 15 named storms in the eastern and central Pacific this hurricane season. Marie will become the sixth storm to reach hurricane status.
AccuWeather’s prediction at the beginning of hurricane season that there would be 17 to 22 named storms across the Pacific will likely be shattered, as the season does not end until November 30.
