The Odyssey, Michael and More

The frontrunners have a head start. The festivals have contenders ready to run them down. Let the games begin. 

The film year has already delivered, led by Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey,” a July event picture that doubled as the first true best picture launch of 2026. Back in May, Cannes fired the opening shots, sending Palme d’Or winner “Fjord,” Netflix-acquired Spanish-language epic “La Bola Negra” and Russian drama “Minotaur” down the Croisette with buzz that will trail them into the fall. 

But a frontrunner in August is just a film with an earlier release date. Over the next six weeks, the Oscars race will unspool in waves — the thin air of Telluride, the carpets of Venice’s Lido, the crowds of Toronto, the tastemakers of New York — with a single afternoon screening able to rewrite the whole narrative.  

The festivals are set, and the year is loaded. And a moonwalk, a Homeric voyage and a Pixar goodbye are all in play at the same time. Here’s where the race stands. 

“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios) 

Ryan Gosling has three Oscar nominations — for “Half Nelson,” “La La Land” and “Barbie” — and no wins, and this adaptation of Andy Weir’s novel could hand him another shot. It also marks the live-action sci-fi leap of Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, the “Lego Movie” and “21 Jump Street” duo. Oscar history isn’t usually kind to directing partnerships: Only a handful have been nominated, most recently the Daniels for “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” Lord and Miller could join that short list, if Amazon MGM builds a friendly reminder campaign around them. 

“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures) 

No surprise, Nolan is the man to beat, and “The Odyssey” is exactly the kind of feat the Academy’s directors branch loves to reward. His adaptation of Homer’s epic arrived to a wave of critical love, the rare summer tentpole with awards ambition built into its foundation: mythic source material, a starry ensemble and a theatrical approach designed to make the format itself part of the conversation. Two years after the “Oppenheimer” sweep — his first directing Oscar and a best picture win shared with wife and producing partner Emma Thomas — Nolan enters this campaign with a lot of Academy goodwill. Matt Damon’s Odysseus could put him in serious play in the actor race after winning a screenwriting Oscar nearly 30 years ago for “Good Will Hunting.” At the same time, John Leguizamo, Robert Pattinson, Anne Hathaway and Samantha Morton crowd a supporting field. 

“Michael” (Lionsgate) 

Every season has an unofficial Oscar “villain” — think “Green Book,” “Bohemian Rhapsody” and “Emilia Pérez.” This year has a moonwalk. “Michael” doesn’t need critics (it has a 38% Rotten score, but a 97% Certified Fresh rating); it needs the Academy’s populist wing, the same bloc that widened best picture to 10 slots after the 2008 “Dark Knight” snub to make room for films the public embraced. Jaafar Jackson’s transformation into the King of Pop will be the main talking point, and two-time Oscar nominee Colman Domingo’s chilling turn as family patriarch Joe Jackson lends the film gravity. Factor in the craft branches — editing, sound and makeup and hairstyling — and voters have plenty of boxes to check. 

“The Invite” (A24) 

Olivia Wilde’s third feature is her sleekest, most assured work behind the camera, and A24 is mounting a full fall campaign. An English-language remake of Cesc Gay’s “The People Upstairs,” it boasts one of the year’s most impeccable ensembles: Seth Rogen, Wilde, four-time nominee Edward Norton and Oscar winner Penélope Cruz (a triple threat this year, with “La Bola Negra” and “Bunker” still to come). The engine is a crackling script by Rashida Jones and Will McCormack (reunited after “Celeste and Jesse Forever”) that offers sharp dialogue, a merciless structure and relentless laughs. In a season that rewards originals and adaptations alike, this is writing voters will likely remember in January and a cast the actors branch can get behind. 

“Obsession” (Focus Features) 

If “Get Out” had Daniel Kaluuya, “Obsession” has Inde Navarrette. The horror breakout — the highest-grossing film in Focus Features history — lives and dies by its star, who plays a hypnotized co-worker and love interest with fearless physicality. Destined to be one of the year’s signature discoveries, as proven by her casting as Rogue in the upcoming “X-Men” movie, Navarrette could emerge as a critics’ awards darling, and Focus has every reason to push hard — perhaps even for writer-director-editor Curry Barker and a best picture slot. 

“I Swear” (Sony Pictures Classics)

The N-word outburst at the BAFTA Awards put “I Swear” in the headlines and buried the real story: Robert Aramayo deserved that surprise win for lead actor. As a man living with Tourette’s syndrome, the 33-year-old English actor delivered an invigorating, deeply human turn that topped Timothée Chalamet’s in “Marty Supreme” and Michael B. Jordan’s in “Sinners.” The film’s U.S. release date makes it eligible for the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and the Oscars. If enough voters see it, they’ll understand why Aramayo won the BAFTA — and the film could get other Oscar nominations, including original screenplay.

“Toy Story 5” (Pixar) 

“Toy Story 5” is a $1 billion juggernaut and the kind of overwhelming favorite the category bends around; Pixar sequels lock up nominations before the competition has finished storyboarding. The film also gets a boost from legendary composer Randy Newman and superstar Taylor Swift. The franchise carries a perfect Oscar record: All four previous “Toy Story” films earned best original song nominations, the only series with a flawless mark in the category. Pixar could extend the streak with “I Knew It, I Knew You,” written by Swift and Jack Antonoff — which would also hand Swift, a record four-time album of the year Grammy winner, her first Oscar bid after two near misses. In a franchise built on goodbyes, one more song may be all it takes.

Best Picture
“The Debut” (A24)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“Fjord” (Neon)
“The Invite” (A24)
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“Tender Loving Care” (Bleecker Street)
“Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Wildwood” (Laika)

Director
Mike Leigh, “Tender Loving Care” (Bleecker Street)
Martin McDonagh, “Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
Christopher Nolan, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Denis Villeneuve, “Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
Olivia Wilde, “The Invite” (A24)

Actor
Tom Cruise, “Digger” (Warner Bros.)
Matt Damon, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
John Malkovich, “Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
Andrew Scott, “Elsinore” (Focus Features)
John Turturro, “The Only Living Pickpocket in New York” (Sony Pictures Classics)

Actress
Marion Bailey, “Tender Loving Care” (Bleecker Street)
Rosalind Eleazar, “Misty Green” (A24)
Julianne Moore, “The Debut” (A24)
Inde Navarette, “Obsession” (Focus Features)
Olivia Wilde, “The Invite” (A24)

Supporting Actor
Andrew Garfield, “Artificial” (Neon)
Paul Giamatti, “The Debut” (A24)
John Goodman, “Digger” (Warner Bros.)
John Leguizamo, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Sam Rockwell, “Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)

Supporting Actress
Penélope Cruz, “The Invite” (A24)
Anne Hathaway, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Sandra Hüller, “Digger” (Warner Bros.)
Samantha Morton, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Kate O’Flynn, “Tender Loving Care” (Bleecker Street)

Original Screenplay
“The Debut” (A24) — Jesse Eisenberg
“Fjord” (Neon) — Cristian Mungiu
“Josephine” (Sumerian Pictures) — Beth de Araújo
“Tender Loving Care” (Bleecker Street) — Mike Leigh
“Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures) — Martin McDonagh

Adapted Screenplay
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) — Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve
“The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth” (Netflix) — Quentin Tarantino
“The Invite” (A24) — Rashida Jones and Will McCormack
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures) — Christopher Nolan
“Wildwood” (Laika) — Chris Butler

Casting
“Being Heumann” (Apple Original Films)
“Clarissa” (Neon)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“I Play Rocky” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)

Animated Feature
“Forgotten Island” (DreamWorks Animation)
“Ray Gunn” (Netflix)
“Tangles” (Independent Film Company)
“Toy Story 5” (Pixar)
“Wildwood” (Laika)

Production Design
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth” (Netflix)
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Werwulf” (Focus Features)

Cinematography
“Digger” (Warner Bros.)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“Werwulf” (Focus Features)

Costume Design
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
“I Love Boosters” (Neon)
“Michael” (Lionsgate)
“Werwulf” (Focus Features)

Film Editing
“The Debut” (A24)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“Michael” (Lionsgate)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)

Makeup and Hairstyling
“Digger” (Warner Bros.)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“Elsinore” (Focus Features)
“I Play Rocky” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“Michael” (Lionsgate)

Sound
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
“Michael” (Lionsgate)
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)

Visual Effects
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“Godzilla Minus Zero” (Toho)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“Spider-Man: Brand New Day” (Sony Pictures)

Original Score
“The Debut” (A24) — Emile Mosseri
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) — Hans Zimmer
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures) — Ludwig Göransson
“Tenzing” (Apple Original Films) — Rebekka Karijord
“Wildwood” (Laika) — Dario Marianelli

Original Song
“By Any Means” (Paramount Pictures) — “By Any Means”
“The Debut” (A24) — Title TBA
“Forgotten Island” (DreamWorks Animation) — “A Parallel World”
“Toy Story 5″ (Pixar) — “I Knew It, I Knew You”
“Wildwood” (Laika) — Title TBA

Documentary Feature
“American Doctor” (Watermelon Pictures)
“The History of Concrete” (Magnolia Pictures)
“Musk” (Bleecker Street)
“Once Upon a Time in Harlem” (Neon)
“One in a Million” (PBS Documentary Films)

International Feature
“All of a Sudden” from Japan (Neon)
“Fjord” from Romania (Neon)
“La Bola Negra” from Spain (Netflix)
“Minotaur” from France (Mubi)
“Possible Love” from South Korea (Netflix)