Iran’s missile arsenal is mostly intact and still capable of attacking America’s allies beyond the Gulf states two months into a joint US-Israeli bombing campaign.
The White House has repeatedly claimed that Iran’s military capacity has been “decimated” and wiped out, but Nato sources have told The Independent this is not true.
“Whatever anyone is saying in public, we estimate that the Iranians have at least 60 per cent of their missile capability. How else can you explain, for example, how they can continue to attack Gulf nations with missiles and drones?” said a senior Nato source in Europe.
This is the latest blow to American claims to have somehow won a war that has achieved none of its stated aims and shown the limits of US power at a time when Donald Trump is heading to China, hoping to be perceived as first among equals.
“Everybody knows that Trump and Hegseth are talking nonsense when they make claims to have destroyed Iran militarily,” the source continued.
“The missiles are largely intact, and the top people who were negotiating with the US before the US-Israeli attacks are now dead, so hardliners are in charge. Meanwhile, there has been no uprising because the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is intact and used rifles to oppress their people, not missiles anyway.”
As part of its war aims, the US said it wanted to see Iran’s population rise against a murderous and authoritarian regime in Tehran. It has not.
The White House said it aimed to destroy Iran’s nuclear programme. It has not. The US said it wanted to end Iran’s destabilising activities around the Middle East. It has not.
But Iran has managed to cause a surge in global fossil fuel prices with oil above $100 a barrel and crippling reductions in world supplies of fertiliser during the northern hemisphere’s planting season by closing the Strait of Hormuz.
Reporting from the New York Times and The Washington Post recently has reinforced the understanding that Iran’s military capacity has survived an onslaught that Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, insists is complete.
The NYT, citing intelligence sources, reports that 30-33 of Iran’s missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz have survived joint Israeli and US bombardment and are therefore able to continue to threaten the oil shipping choke point.
On top of that, the newspaper said it had a month-old intelligence assessment that said the US campaign in Iran had been even more unsuccessful than Nato had reckoned.
“Iran still fields about 70 per cent of its mobile launchers across the country and has retained roughly 70 per cent of its prewar missile stockpile, according to the assessments. That stockpile encompasses both ballistic missiles, which can target other nations in the region, and a smaller supply of cruise missiles, which can be used against shorter-range targets on land or at sea,” the paper says.
The Washington Post also reported that about 70 per cent of Iran’s capacity remained intact.
