Why Panthers, Rabbitohs, Warriors and Cowboys win in week one
And just like that, after seven months of grinding, brutal rugby league, only eight teams are left in the NRL premiership race.
We’ve got nine games left in the season. Best not to dwell on that too long. Not when we’ve got four fascinating finals to look forward to this weekend. Here’s how I see each of them being won and lost, the superstars I’m watching closest and the little details I’m keeping an eye out for as well.
Two attacking geniuses collide, but Murray owns the middle
These sides are attack-minded, which as an old playmaker makes me very, very happy. South Sydney against Newcastle on a dry track at Allianz Stadium should equate to points, points and more points.
And for both teams, it’s all about one man more than any other: Kalyn Ponga.
For South Sydney, it’s how they keep a lid on him. For Newcastle, it’s how they get him one-on-one with Rabbitohs defenders.
I’m worried about the Knights’ middle forwards, they’ve got a really tough job ahead of them given their two best big men this year Jacob Saifiti (suspended) and Trey Mooney (fractured scapula) will both be watching from the sidelines.
Newcastle’s discipline has to be first-class – which means no penalties or cheap field position. If the Rabbitohs get their favourite set plays on, then the Knights are in for a long night.
Time to step up: For Newcastle to keep their season alive, they need a 9/10 or even a 10/10 performance from Ponga. His X-factor and speed on the edges is how they rattle the Rabbitohs’ big names, particularly when he combines with the left-edge strike power of Bradman Best.
Cody Walker holds the key for South Sydney, and in turn, Cameron Murray sets up so much of all their good play with his influence, leg speed and footy smarts in the middle. If he creates room for Cody, watch out, because it brings Latrell Mitchell and friends into the game as well.
What to watch for: Cameron Murray’s late footwork at the line and quick play-the-ball.
The power and pace of Newcastle’s left-edge, particularly from Bradman Best and Greg Marzhew, who is just a beast on the wing.
Joey’s tip: Rabbitohs by 12
First try-scorer: Latrell Mitchell
Man of the match: Cameron Murray
The Wahs’ big men and the NRL’s next big thing
This is a real clash of contrasts and predictions of wet and windy conditions would suit the Warriors more than the freewheeling Dolphins.
The Warriors have been flat in the past two weeks against Newcastle and Manly. But I have no doubt they’ve had one eye on the finals and I expect them to come flying out of the blocks, like they did when they rumbled Penrith a month ago.
The Dolphins have to start fast and get quality ball to their left edge early. Test out the Warriors’ right side defence. Herbie Farnworth, Selwyn Cobbo and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow are all amazing attacking threats – don’t let them go to waste.
For the Warriors, they’ve got to go after Isaiya Katoa and wear him out with a big defensive workload. Apart from that, they’ve already got the perfect blueprint for finals footy. Andrew Webster learned it at Penrith and has adapted it to the Warriors’ strengths – power forwards, high completions, kick to the corners and sound discipline.
Time to step up: The Warriors’ middle forwards are their strength and their leaders. With a huge home atmosphere, James Fisher-Harris, Mitch Barnett and Erin Clark can set up victory in the first 30 minutes if they get on top.
For the visitors, Isaiya Katoa is the focal point of everything they do. He’s the best young player in the NRL and the key to their lethal left edge. Katoa has all the tricks of a genuine No.7 – the temperament, kicking game, ball control, pass selection. I’m fascinated to see how he handles his first finals game.
What to watch for: How Erin Clark readies his body for contact. He’s not a massive middle forward by any means. But he can bump off defenders regularly – he’s got great balance and body positioning.
The speed, footwork and agility of Herbie Farnworth. One-on-one, defenders just can’t stop him, because he’s not a small man. He’s 100kg, and he’s so quick and agile.
Joey’s tip: Warriors by eight
First try-scorer: Alofiana Khan-Pereira
Man of the match: Erin Clark
The gambler and the million-dollar marquee man
Now this game I can honestly say I have no idea how it’s going to play out. But what I can’t say loud enough is Cronulla fans, get up, get over Tom Uglys Bridge, and fill up Allianz Stadium. The Cowboys won’t have many fans travelling, so make the 40-minute trip up the road to a world-class stadium and make it your fortress for the night.
North Queensland desperately need to find consistency in their game. And I don’t necessarily mean from week-to-week, I mean from one set to the next. The Cowboys’ strength is their right-side attack and they’ll ask plenty of questions of Cronulla, but their own defence is a real issue too – 41.5 missed tackles ranks them 16th in the NRL for the season.
For the Sharks, it’s the same question every year as they limp into the finals with one win from their last five games. Have they got another gear? Personally, I don’t think so, I think the Cowboys have got an upset in them.
Time to step up: All eyes are on Braydon Trindall returning from injury but for me, it’s Nicho Hynes who needs to fire. He needs to own the result. That’s the responsibility that comes with being the highest-paid player at your club and a marquee player.
Scott Drinkwater is North Queensland’s most creative player when he jumps into the front line. They’re all-in on him – good, bad, rocks or diamonds, that’s just how he plays.
What to watch for: The connection between Tom Dearden and Heilum Luki on North Queensland’s right edge – particularly Dearden’s short balls to the big man.
And for Cronulla, Blayke Brailey’s service from dummy-half, especially close to the tryline, is elite. His long pass is a thing of beauty, and exactly what you want as a playmaker – hitting you out in front every time.
Joey’s tip: Cowboys by four
First try-scorer: Ronaldo Mulitalo
Man of the match: Tom Dearden
Seventh heaven: Which champion prevails?
The Roosters prevailed in a 12-6 epic the last time these two teams clashed but watching Penrith last week against the Tigers, I think it’ll be all-out attack from the Panthers – they love a Sunday afternoon after all.
I still can’t believe Isaah Yeo is playing with a ruptured pectoral. The man is a machine. The Roosters are without Sam Walker, so how they tweak their attack is interesting. I’m a big fan of his replacement Hugo Savala. He’s a really intelligent player and a steady half, he’ll ensure the side sticks to Trent Robinson’s game plan.
And then it’s on Daly Cherry-Evans to go back to being that on-ball halfback he was at Manly – like riding a bike, you’d think.
I don’t think the Roosters will get too many chances against this Penrith side. And even when they do, what impressed me most about the Panthers last week was their scramble defence as they secured the minor premiership. Dylan Edwards was just everywhere snuffing out Tigers tries.
Time to step up: No surprises here, and it won’t surprise either when he does, because Nathan Cleary is the best big-game player in the NRL. He’s the best player in the NRL by a long way.
One thing I have noticed of late is he’s been launching torpedo bombs, which is an extremely difficult kick to nail in a game, and one he rarely attempts, which just shows how comfortable and confident he is right now.
For the Roosters, it’s Cherry-Evans. Even if Walker was fit, this is why DCE was brought to the club – to lead them in these games. The Roosters need his long kicking game and they need him getting good early ball to Rob Toia and Mark Nawaqanitawase.
What to watch for: Moses Leota sets the tone for Penrith with his carries. We talk about Manly’s Nathan Brown coming off the back fence, well Moses comes in from the corporate boxes.
And for the Roosters, Rob Toia’s right-foot step will take your breath away. He is so sharp and powerful off it, it’s easy to forget this is just his second season of NRL.
Joey’s tip: Panthers by 14
First try-scorer: Tom Jenkins
Man of the match: Nathan Cleary
Andrew Johns is an Immortal, a Newcastle great and a commentator for Channel Nine